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Publikasjoner

NIBIOs ansatte publiserer flere hundre vitenskapelige artikler og forskningsrapporter hvert år. Her finner du referanser og lenker til publikasjoner og andre forsknings- og formidlingsaktiviteter. Samlingen oppdateres løpende med både nytt og historisk materiale. For mer informasjon om NIBIOs publikasjoner, besøk NIBIOs bibliotek.

2021

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Sammendrag

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is one of the main wheat-production regions in India and the world. With climate change, wheat yields in this region will be affected through changes in temperature and precipitation and decreased water availability for irrigation, raising major concerns for national and international food security. Here we use a regional climate model and a crop model to better understand the direct (via changes in temperature and precipitation) and indirect (via a decrease in irrigation availability) impacts of climate change on wheat yields at four sites spread across different states of the IGP: Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The results show an increase in mean temperature and precipitation as well as maximum temperature during the growing season or Rabi season (November–April). The direct impact of climate change, via changes in temperature and precipitation, leads to wheat yield losses between −1% and −8% depending on the site examined. Then, the indirect impact of climate change is examined, considering the impact of climate change on water availability leading to a decrease in irrigation. In this case, the yield losses become significant and much higher, reaching −4% to −36% depending on the site examined and the irrigation regime chosen (6, 5, 3 or 1 irrigations). This work shows that the indirect impacts of climate change may be more detrimental than the direct climatic effects for the future wheat yields in the IGP. It also emphasizes the complexity of climatic risk and the necessity of integrating indirect impacts of climate change to fully assess how it affects agriculture and choose the adequate adaptation response.

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Sammendrag

Water consumption along value chains of goods and services has increased globally and led to increased attention on water footprinting. Most global water consumption is accounted for by evaporation (E), which is connected via bridges of atmospheric moisture transport to other regions on Earth. However, the resultant source–receptor relationships between different drainage basins have not yet been considered in water footprinting. Based on a previously developed data set on the fate of land evaporation, we aim to close this gap by using comprehensive information on evaporation recycling in water footprinting for the first time. By considering both basin internal evaporation recycling (BIER; >5% in 2% of the world’s basins) and basin external evaporation recycling (BEER; >50% in 37% of the world’s basins), we were able to use three types of water inventories (basin internal, basin external, and transboundary inventories), which imply different evaluation perspectives in water footprinting. Drawing on recently developed impact assessment methods, we produced characterization models for assessing the impacts of blue and green water evaporation on blue water availability for all evaluation perspectives. The results show that the negative effects of evaporation in the originating basins are counteracted (and partly overcompensated) by the positive effects of reprecipitation in receiving basins. By aggregating them, combined net impacts can be determined. While we argue that these offset results should not be used as a standalone evaluation, the water footprint community should consider atmospheric moisture recycling in future standards and guidelines.