Hopp til hovedinnholdet

Publikasjoner

NIBIOs ansatte publiserer flere hundre vitenskapelige artikler og forskningsrapporter hvert år. Her finner du referanser og lenker til publikasjoner og andre forsknings- og formidlingsaktiviteter. Samlingen oppdateres løpende med både nytt og historisk materiale. For mer informasjon om NIBIOs publikasjoner, besøk NIBIOs bibliotek.

2025

Sammendrag

Nordic boreal forests deliver critical ecosystem services but are increasingly vulnerable to abiotic disturbances, particularly wind and snow damage, potentially intensified by climate change. Climate-resilient forest management requires reliable decision-support tools for proactive risk assessment and post-event damage mapping. This thesis contributes to advancing adaptive abiotic forest disturbance management by integrating high-resolution satellite imagery, numerical weather prediction, tree mechanics, and machine learning techniques. It is composed of three papers. The first paper demonstrated that very high-resolution stereo satellite imagery and photogrammetric digital surface model reconstruction effectively map windthrow, particularly in moderate-to-high-density conifer stands, even under challenging Nordic winter conditions. The second paper proposed a novel mechanistic modeling framework predicting snow-induced stem breakage at the single-tree level, leveraging numerical weather prediction-based snow accumulation data and mechanistic critical snow load computations. The model provides physically interpretable risk assessments using basic tree metrics and predicted snow loads and can be readily integrated into forest management scenario planning. The third paper applied interpretable machine learning to numerical weather prediction data to identify drivers of forest wind damage during catastrophic windstorms driven by atmospheric mountain waves in a complex terrain. The findings underline that it was atmospheric stratification, turbulence, and vertical airflow that primarily controlled forest damage during the investigated event. Forest structure played minimal role, emphasizing the importance of a landscape-scale risk management approach focused on topographic susceptibility to severe mountain wave occurrences. This work makes a small, yet important, contribution to an integrated decision-support framework strengthening forest damage risk prediction and post-event assessment capabilities under climate uncertainty. Improvement priorities include observational validation of the canopy snow accumulation model, generalizing the interpretation of mountain wave-induced damage to other landscapes, and exploring multi-sensor fusion for windthrow detection. Finally, future efforts should be aimed at scaling the framework to a national scope and integrating advanced neural network-driven models for holistic risk management in an uncertain future.

Sammendrag

Nedbygging av natur og andre arealendringer er den aller viktigste årsaken til tap av naturmangfold og naturverdier, både globalt og i Norge. I dette medborgernotatet ser vi nærmere på nordmenns holdninger til naturnedbygging, naturrestaurering, og omdisponering av arealer. Avveininger mellom ulike ønsker, interesser og behov står sentralt i arealpolitikken. Vi bruker derfor eksperimenter til å undersøke hvordan holdningene til nedbygging eller restaurering av natur påvirkes av ulike faktorer. Eksempler på disse faktorene er formålet for tiltaket, hvilke aktører som står bak, hvilke naturtyper som påvirkes, eller hvilke interesser eller aktører tiltaket vil ha konsekvenser for. Dette studiet viser at folk generelt uttrykker seg positivt til å ta vare på eller restaurere natur, også når det medfører ulemper for dem selv eller samfunnet. Folk er i stor grad positive til å finne andre alternativer fremfor utbygging i skog, myr, våtmarksområder og mer generelt “naturområder”. I tillegg er folk positive til fortetting, og de er villige til å akseptere ulemper for dem selv eller samfunnet, for eksempel i form av lengre reisevei, færre parkeringsplasser, eller færre hytter.

Sammendrag

Get ready for the 2025 pink salmon run when locals and fishing associations will trap as many pink salmon as possible

Sammendrag

NIBIO har på oppdrag fra Bergen kommune undersøkt muligheter, ønsker og utfordringer for økt arealbruk i Bergen kommune. Det er et potensiale i å opprettholde og øke bruken av arealene, da det er god investerings- og utviklingsvilje blant produsentene, og flere av disse ønsker å utvide arealene. Økonomi og generasjonsskifter er utstrakte utfordringer for videre drift, samt byråkratiske og regulatoriske utfordringer for produsentene. Undersøkelser av areal antatt ute av drift viser at en stor del av dette arealet drives uten at det blir søkt om produksjonstilskudd eller beitepusses, og er dermed relativt enklere å ta inn igjen i drift.

Sammendrag

Agricultural land abandonment is increasingly affecting rural and low-intensity farming regions across Europe, raising concerns about its impact on biodiversity. While some species may benefit from reduced human disturbance, many species in semi-natural ecosystem types depend on traditional agricultural management to maintain their ecological integrity. This study examines whether abandoned agricultural land in Norway contains semi-natural ecosystems that may hold important remnant populations of red-listed plant species and where continued cessation of farming may further threaten these biodiverse ecosystems. Using spatial data on abandoned farmland, semi-natural ecosystem types and species observations, we identify areas of conservation interest and assess the extent to which these areas support endangered species. In addition, we conducted a time-series analysis of vegetation change using NDVI data (2017–2024) to evaluate whether abandonment led to detectable ecological succession. We also analyzed the spatial distribution of abandonment and its correlation with proximity to active farms to understand regional patterns of abandonment. Our results show that only a small percentage (3.7 %) of the abandoned agricultural land considered in this study overlaps with known semi-natural ecosystem types, yet these areas support a significant number of red-listed plant species. The NDVI analysis revealed generally weak but positive greening trends, suggesting early successional changes that are not yet statistically significant across most habitat types. Our method thus suggests a potential approach to allocate limited management resources to key locations. At present, the amount of semi-natural ecosystems is probably underestimated, however, because of limited and time-consuming mapping activity. These findings emphasize the need for more extensive mapping and targeted conservation efforts and highlight the risks posed by abandonment in biodiversity rich semi-natural ecosystem types.