Joyce Machado Nunes Romeiro
Forsker
Forfattere
Joyce Machado Nunes Romeiro Jostein Gohli Paal Krokene Tron Haakon Eid Clara Antón FernándezSammendrag
Bark beetle (Ips typographus) outbreaks have the potential to damage large areas of spruce-dominated forests in Scandinavia. To define forest management strategies that will minimize the risk of bark beetle attacks, we need robust models that link forest structure and composition to the risk and potential damage of bark beetle attacks. Since data on bark beetle infestation rates and corresponding damages does not exist in Norway, we implement a previously published meta-model for estimating I. typographus damage probability and intensity. Using both current and projected climatic conditions we used the model to estimate damage inflicted by I. typographus in Norwegian spruce stands. The model produces feasible results for most of Norway’s climate and forest conditions, but a revised model tailored to Norway should be fitted to a dataset that includes older stands and lower temperatures. Based on current climate and forest conditions, the model predicts that approximately nine percent of productive forests within Norway’s main spruce-growing region will experience a loss ranging from 1.7 to 11 m3/ha of spruce over a span of five years. However, climate change is predicted to exacerbate the annual damage caused by I. typographus, potentially leading to a doubling of its detrimental effects.
Forfattere
Joyce Machado Nunes Romeiro Tron Haakon Eid Clara Antón Fernández Annika Kangas Erik TrømborgSammendrag
It is expected that European Boreal and Temperate forests will be greatly affected by climate change, causing natural disturbances to increase in frequency and severity. To detangle how, through forest management, we can make forests less vulnerable to the impact of natural disturbances, we need to include the risks of such disturbances in our decision-making tools. The present review investigates: i) how the most important forestry-related natural disturbances are linked to climate change, and ii) different modelling approaches that assess the risks of natural disturbances and their applicability for large-scale forest management planning. Global warming will decrease frozen soil periods, which increases root rot, snow, ice and wind damage, cascading into an increment of bark beetle damage. Central Europe will experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature, which lowers tree defenses against bark beetles and increases root rot infestations. Ice and wet snow damages are expected to increase in Northern Boreal forests, and to reduce in Temperate and Southern Boreal forests. However, lack of snow cover may increase cases of frost-damaged seedlings. The increased temperatures and drought periods, together with a fuel increment from other disturbances, likely enhance wildfire risk, especially for Temperate forests. For the review of European modelling approaches, thirty-nine disturbance models were assessed and categorized according to their required input variables and to the models’ outputs. Probability models are usually common for all disturbance model approaches, however, models that predict disturbance effects seem to be scarce.