Publikasjoner
NIBIOs ansatte publiserer flere hundre vitenskapelige artikler og forskningsrapporter hvert år. Her finner du referanser og lenker til publikasjoner og andre forsknings- og formidlingsaktiviteter. Samlingen oppdateres løpende med både nytt og historisk materiale. For mer informasjon om NIBIOs publikasjoner, besøk NIBIOs bibliotek.
2023
Sammendrag
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Sammendrag
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Forfattere
Clemens Blattert Mikko Mönkkönen Daniel Burgas Fulvio Di Fulvio Astor Toraño Caicoya Marta Vergarechea Julian Klein Markus Hartikainen Clara Antón Fernández Rasmus Astrup Michael Emmerich Nicklas Forsell Jani Lukkarinen Johanna Lundström Samuli Pitzén Werner Poschenrieder Eeva Primmer Tord Snäll Kyle EyvindsonSammendrag
The European Union (EU) set clear climate change mitigation targets to reach climate neutrality, accounting for forests and their woody biomass resources. We investigated the consequences of increased harvest demands resulting from EU climate targets. We analysed the impacts on national policy objectives for forest ecosystem services and biodiversity through empirical forest simulation and multi-objective optimization methods. We show that key European timber-producing countries – Finland, Sweden, Germany (Bavaria) – cannot fulfil the increased harvest demands linked to the ambitious 1.5°C target. Potentials for harvest increase only exists in the studied region Norway. However, focusing on EU climate targets conflicts with several national policies and causes adverse effects on multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity. We argue that the role of forests and their timber resources in achieving climate targets and societal decarbonization should not be overstated. Our study provides insight for other European countries challenged by conflicting policies and supports policymakers.
Sammendrag
Det er ikke registrert sammendrag
Forfattere
Astor Toraño-Caicoya Marta Vergarechea Clemens Blattert Julian Klein Kyle Eyvindson Daniel Burgas Riera Tord Snäll Mikko Mönkkönen Rasmus Astrup Fulvio Di Fulvio Niklas Forsell Markus Hartikainen Enno Uhl Werner Poschenrieder Clara Antón FernándezSammendrag
Forests provide a range of vital services to society and are critical habitats for biodiversity, holding inherent multifunctionality. While traditionally viewed as a byproduct of production-focused forestry, today's forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (FESB) play an essential role in several sectoral policies’ needs. Achieving policy objectives requires careful management considering the interplay of services, influenced by regional aspects and climate. Here, we examined the multifunctionality gap caused by these factors through simulation of forest management and multi-objective optimization methods across different regions - Finland, Norway, Sweden and Germany (Bavaria). To accomplish this, we tested diverse management regimes (productivity-oriented silviculture, several continuous cover forestry regimes and set asides), two climate scenarios (current and RCP 4.5) and three policy strategies (National Forest, Biodiversity and Bioeconomy Strategies). For each combination we calculated a multifunctionality metric at the landscape scale based on 5 FESB classes (biodiversity conservation, bioenergy, climate regulation, wood, water and recreation). In Germany and Norway, maximum multifunctionality was achieved by increasing the proportion of set-asides and proportionally decreasing the rest of management regimes. In Finland, maximum MF would instead require that policies address greater diversity in management, while in Sweden, the pattern was slightly different but similar to Finland. Regarding the climate scenarios, we observed that only for Sweden the difference in the provision of FESB was significant. Finally, the highest overall potential multifunctionality was observed for Sweden (National Forest scenario, with a value of 0.94 for the normalized multifunctionality metric), followed by Germany (National Forest scenario, 0.83), Finland (Bioeconomy scenario, 0.81) and Norway (National Forest scenario, 0.71). The results highlight the challenges of maximizing multifunctionality and underscore the significant influence of country-specific policies and climate change on forest management. To achieve the highest multifunctionality, strategies must be tailored to specific national landscapes, acknowledging both synergistic and conflicting FESB.
Forfattere
Astor Toraño Caicoya Marta Vergarechea Clemens Blattert Julian Klein Kyle Eyvindson Daniel Burgas Riera Tord Snäll Mikko Mönkkönen Rasmus Astrup Fulvio Di Fulvio Niklas Forsell Markus Hartikainen Enno Uhl Werner Poschenrieder Clara Antón FernándezSammendrag
Forests provide a range of vital services to society and are critical habitats for biodiversity, holding inherent multifunctionality. While traditionally viewed as a byproduct of production-focused forestry, today's forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (FESB) play an essential role in several sectoral policies’ needs. Achieving policy objectives requires careful management considering the interplay of services, influenced by regional aspects and climate. Here, we examined the multifunctionality gap caused by these factors through simulation of forest management and multi-objective optimization methods across different regions - Finland, Norway, Sweden and Germany (Bavaria). To accomplish this, we tested diverse management regimes (productivity-oriented silviculture, several continuous cover forestry regimes and set asides), two climate scenarios (current and RCP 4.5) and three policy strategies (National Forest, Biodiversity and Bioeconomy Strategies). For each combination we calculated a multifunctionality metric at the landscape scale based on 5 FESB classes (biodiversity conservation, bioenergy, climate regulation, wood, water and recreation). In Germany and Norway, maximum multifunctionality was achieved by increasing the proportion of set-asides and proportionally decreasing the rest of management regimes. In Finland, maximum MF would instead require that policies address greater diversity in management, while in Sweden, the pattern was slightly different but similar to Finland. Regarding the climate scenarios, we observed that only for Sweden the difference in the provision of FESB was significant. Finally, the highest overall potential multifunctionality was observed for Sweden (National Forest scenario, with a value of 0.94 for the normalized multifunctionality metric), followed by Germany (National Forest scenario, 0.83), Finland (Bioeconomy scenario, 0.81) and Norway (National Forest scenario, 0.71). The results highlight the challenges of maximizing multifunctionality and underscore the significant influence of country-specific policies and climate change on forest management. To achieve the highest multifunctionality, strategies must be tailored to specific national landscapes, acknowledging both synergistic and conflicting FESB.
Sammendrag
Parametric modeling of downwelling longwave irradiance under all-sky conditions (LW↓) typically involves “correcting” a clear- (or non-overcast) sky model estimate using solar-irradiance-based proxies of cloud cover in lieu of actual cloud cover given uncertainties and measurement challenges of the latter. While such approaches are deemed sound, their application in time and space is inherently limited. We report on a correction model free of solar irradiance-derived cloud proxies that is applicable at the true daily (24 hr) and global scales. The new “cloud-free” correction model demonstrates superior performance in a range of environments relative to existing cloud-free modeling approaches and to corrections based on solar-derived cloudiness proxies. Literature-based performance benchmarking indicates a performance that is often comparable to—and in some cases superior to—performances yielded by conventional parametric modeling approaches employing locally or regionally calibrated parameters, as well as to performances of satellite-based algorithms.
Sammendrag
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Sammendrag
Denne rapporten er del 2 av: Skogressurser i Norge - Status og framtidsscenarier. I foreliggende rapport “Skogressurser i Norge, status og framtidsscenarier for 6 regioner” presenterer vi først status for skogressursene pr. 2017 (kapittel 3-5) og historisk utvikling av ressursene (kapittel 6 og 7). Vi har undersøkt hvordan arealfordeling av bonitet og skogtyper og skogvolum og tilvekst fordeler seg på hogstklasser. I tillegg viser vi hvordan skogarealet, tilvekst og skogvolum fordeler seg på arealer der skoglovgivningen og sertifiseringsordninger krever at det må tas særskilte hensyn ved hogst (hensynsarealer, kapittel 3.2). Historisk utvikling av skogressursene er presentert for arealutviklingen for hogstklasser tilbake til år 1990, skogvolum og tilvekst tilbake til år 1925 og skogavvirkning tilbake til år 2000. I kapittel 9 og 10 presenterer vi 9 framtidsscenarier (prognoser) for mulig avvirkning/balansekvantum, tilvekst- og volumutvikling 100 år frem i tid gitt ulike forutsetninger for skogens alder ved hogst, foryngelse og ungskogpleie. I kapittel 11 vises en sammenligning av de ulike scenariene som er estimert for hver region. Oversiktene for skogressursene (referanseår 2017) og framtidsscenariene er basert på takseringer av Landsskogtakseringens permanente prøveflater for perioden 2015-2019. Prognoseverktøyet SiTree er benyttet til å estimere balansekvantum for de 9 framtidsscenariene. Vi fant at prognoser med like driftskostnader, men med varierende skogkulturinnsats, hadde relativt liten effekt på balansekvantum, men hadde effekt på treslagssammensetningen i tilgjengelig skogvolum, tilvekst og volumutvikling i produktiv skog. Varierende forutsetning om hogstalder hadde også effekt på utviklingen av skogressursene og på balansekvantumet.
Forfattere
Morgane MerlinSammendrag
Det er ikke registrert sammendrag