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Publications

NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.

2024

Abstract

Potential climate change impacts on water resources have been extensively assessed in Norway due to substantial changes in climate in the recent decades. However, the combined and isolated effects of forest and forest management have been rarely considered in the climate impact studies in Norway although about 38% of the land area is covered by forest. This study aims to improve hydrological impact projections in forest dominant catchments by considering the effects of forest growth and management and to attribute hydrological changes to climate and forest changes. The eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was applied to simulate hydrological processes and extremes for two micro-scale, two meso-scale and two macro-scale catchments, accounting for the effects of spatial scale. The climate projections were generated by three EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment for the European domain) regional climate models (RCMs) for two RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) and were bias corrected using the quantile-mapping method. Forest development over time was simulated as a function of climate determining growth and SSP-dependent harvest levels determining wood outtake. The simulations were initialized with the forest status of the year 2020 and different forest types are distinguished according to structural characteristics represented by three key parameters: leaf area index, mean tree height and surface albedo. Preliminary simulation results show that there are minor changes (within ±5%) in hydrological processes under the combinations of the climate and forest scenarios for these catchments. Climate change is the major driver of hydrological change at the catchment scale whereas forest development mainly influences the spatial distribution of the hydrological fluxes. The results further indicate that forest growth under a warming climate helps to reduce the risk of the floods and drought slightly by reducing surface runoff in wet periods and increasing base flow in dry periods, respectively.

To document

Abstract

Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) pastoralism utilizes vast boreo-arctic taiga and tundra as grazing land. Highly fluctuating population sizes pose major challenges to the economy and livelihood of indigenous herder communities. In this study we investigated the effect of population fluctuations on core provisioning and regulating ecosystem services in two Sámi reindeer herding districts with contrasting fluctuation trends. We compared 50-year long time series on herd size, meat production, forage productivity, carbon footprint, and CO2-equivalence metrics for surface albedo change based on the radiative forcing concept. Our results show, for both districts, that the economic benefits from the provisioning services were higher than the costs from the regulating services. Still, there were major contrasts; the district with moderate and stable reindeer density gained nearly the double on provisioning services per unit area. The costs from increasing heat absorption due to reduction in surface albedo caused by replacement of high-reflective lichens with low-reflective woody plants, was 10.5 times higher per unit area in the district with large fluctuations. Overall, the net economic benefits per unit area were 237 % higher in the district with stable reindeer density. These results demonstrate that it is possible to minimize trade-offs between economic benefits from reindeer herding locally and global economic costs in terms of climate-regulating services by minimizing fluctuations in herds that are managed at sustainable densities.

2023

To document

Abstract

Forests plays many vital roles: They provide a natural habitat for animals, plants and other organisms. They contribute to soil protection and water conservation, carbon storage and clean air. Moreover, forests promote economic growth through providing essential goods and services for humans such as timber and food, in addition to a wide variety of products to replace fossil resources in a biobased economy. They are also popular places for outdoor recreation. For forests to thrive, it is important that they are managed in a sustainable way balancing the various ecosystem service demands. Most of these demands are mentioned in different national forest policies. However, such policies often focus on potentially conflicting societal needs, and are mostly developed in non-coordinated processes, both in Norway and other countries. This has created incoherences in design and implementation, leading to policies with conflicting targets. In the international collaborative project MultiForest, scientists have looked at how expectations for forests can be met in a better way in four countries Sweden, Finland, Norway and Germany.

To document

Abstract

We tested whether windthrow damage to Nordic conifer foreststands could be reliably detected as canopy height decreasebetween a pre-storm LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) digitalsurface model (DSM) and a photogrammetric DSM derived froma post-storm WorldView-3 stereo pair. The post-storm ground refer-ence data consisted of field and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)observations of windthrow combined with no-damage areas col-lected by visual interpretation of the available very high resolution(VHR) satellite imagery. We trained and tested a thresholding modelusing canopy height change as the sole predictor. We undertooka two-step accuracy assessment by (1) running k-fold cross-validation on the ground reference dataset and examining theeffect of the potential imperfections in the ground reference data,and (2) conducting rigorous accuracy assessment of the classifiedmap of the study area using an extended set of VHR imagery. Thethresholding model produced accurate windthrow maps in dense,productive forest stands with a sensitivity of 96%, specificity of 71%,and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) over 0.7. However, insparse and high elevation stands, the classification accuracy waspoor. Despite certain collection challenges during the wintermonths in the Nordic region, we consider VHR stereo satelliteimagery to be a viable source of forest canopy height informationand sufficiently accurate to map windthrow disturbance in foreststands of high to moderate density.