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2016

Sammendrag

The effects of soil variability on regional crop yield under projected climate change are largely unknown. In Southeastern Norway, increased temperature and precipitation are projected for the mid-21st century. Crop simulation models in combination with scaling techniques can be used to determine the regional pattern of crop yield. In the present paper, the CSM-CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model was applied to simulate regional spring wheat yield for Akershus and Østfold counties in Southeastern Norway. Prior to the simulations, parameters in the CSM-CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model were calibrated for the spring wheat cvars Zebra, Demonstrant and Bjarne, using cultivar trial data from Southeastern Norway and site-specific weather and soil information.Weather input data for regional yield simulations represented the climate in 1961–1990 and projections of the climate in 2046–2065. The latter were based on four Global Climate Models and greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Data on regional soil particle size distribution, water-holding characteristics and organic matter data were obtained from a database. To determine the simulated grain yield sensitivity to soil input, the number of soil profiles used to describe the soilscape in the region varied from 76 to 16, 5 and 1. The soils in the different descriptions were selected by arranging them into groups according to similarities in physical characteristics and taking the soil in each group occupying the largest area in the region to represent other soils in that group. The simulated grain yields were higher under all four projected future climate scenarios than the corresponding average yields in the baseline conditions. On average across the region, there were mostly non-significant differences in grain yield between the soil extrapolations for all cultivars and climate projections. However, for sub-regions grain yield varied by up to 20% between soil extrapolations. These results indicate how projected climate change could affect spring wheat yield given the assumed simulated conditions for a region with similar climate and soil conditions to many other cereal production regions in Northern Europe. The results also provide useful information about how soil input data could be handled in regional crop yield determinations under these conditions.

Til dokument

Sammendrag

Black currant is a woody plant in which growth and development are intimately controlled by, and synchronised with seasonal changes in photoperiod and temperature. Concern over the potential impact of global warming on plant phenology and yield, led us to initiate relations. An experimental system with single-stemmed potted plants was developed which allowed a research program to address both qualitative and quantitative assessment of climatic responses. Growth cessation and flowering were both induced by short days, with critical photoperiods of approximately 17 and 16 h, respectively, for most cultivars. Both processes were advanced and promoted by increasing autumn temperature with an optimum in the 18-21°C region. An exception was cultivars of high-boreal origin, which had an early growth cessation at low temperature. Unexpectedly, however, not all plants flowered after exposure to 10 h photoperiod, and the number of flowers decreased as the photoperiod was reduced from the near-critical length of 15 h. This was due to premature dormancy induced by an abrupt change to photoperiods well below the critical level. Field experiments revealed that cultivars of varying geographic origin, exhibited a typical latitudinal cline in their photoperiodically controlled timing of growth and flowering responses. Breaking of bud dormancy and promotion of flower bud development required chilling at -5°C for 14 weeks or more for optimal responses. However, while chilling at -10°C for 8 weeks resulted in dormancy release, continued chilling to 16 weeks inhibited bud break completely. We therefore propose that excessive chilling induces secondary bud dormancy in black currant. The observed high chilling requirements of black currants concur with the reported vulnerability of this crop to declining winter chill in the wake of the ongoing global warming. Furthermore, such conditions also induce a particularly deep bud dormancy state that further increases the chilling need.