Publikasjoner
NIBIOs ansatte publiserer flere hundre vitenskapelige artikler og forskningsrapporter hvert år. Her finner du referanser og lenker til publikasjoner og andre forsknings- og formidlingsaktiviteter. Samlingen oppdateres løpende med både nytt og historisk materiale. For mer informasjon om NIBIOs publikasjoner, besøk NIBIOs bibliotek.
2016
Sammendrag
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Sammendrag
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Sammendrag
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Forfattere
Panu Korhonen Taru Palosuo Mats Höglind Tomas Persson Marcel Van Oijen Guillaume Jégo Perttu Virkajärvi Gilles Bélanger Anne-Maj GustavssonSammendrag
Det er ikke registrert sammendrag
Forfattere
Panu Korhonen Taru Palosuo Mats Höglind Tomas Persson Marcel Van Oijen Guillaume Jégo Perttu Virkajärvi Gilles Bélanger Anne-Maj GustavssonSammendrag
Simulation models are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on crop production and adaptation options, but few model comparisons have been done to assess uncertainties in the simulation results of forage grass models. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of three models (BASGRA, CATIMO, and STICS) to simulate the dry matter yield of the first and second cut of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) using observed field data from a wide range of climatic conditions, cultivars, soil types and crop management practices that are associated with timothy production in its main production regions in Canada and Northern Europe. The performance of the models was assessed with both cultivarspecific and non-cultivar-specific (generic) calibrations. The results showed the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches and the magnitude of uncertainty related to simulated timothy grass yield. Model results were sensitive to calibrations applied.
Forfattere
Richard P. Kipling Perttu Virkajärvi Laura Breitsameter Yannick Curnel Tom De Swaef Anne-Maj Gustavsson Sylvain Hennart Mats Höglind Kirsi Järvenranta Julien Minet Claas Nendel Tomas Persson Catherine Picon-Cochard Susanne Rolinski Daniel L. Sandars Nigel D. Scollan Leon Sebek Giovanna Seddaiu Cairistiona F.E. Topp Stanislaw Twardy Jantine Van Middelkoop Lianhai Wu Gianni BellocchiSammendrag
Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.
Sammendrag
Process-based models (PBM) for simulation of weather dependent grass growth can assist farmers andplant breeders in addressing the challenges of climate change by simulating alternative roads of adap-tation. They can also provide management decision support under current conditions. A drawback ofexisting grass models is that they do not take into account the effect of winter stresses, limiting theiruse for full-year simulations in areas where winter survival is a key factor for yield security. Here, wepresent a novel full-year PBM for grassland named BASGRA. It was developed by combining the LIN-GRA grassland model (Van Oijen et al., 2005a) with models for cold hardening and soil physical winterprocesses. We present the model and show how it was parameterized for timothy (Phleum pratense L.),the most important forage grass in Scandinavia and parts of North America and Asia. Uniquely, BASGRAsimulates the processes taking place in the sward during the transition from summer to winter, includ-ing growth cessation and gradual cold hardening, and functions for simulating plant injury due to lowtemperatures, snow and ice affecting regrowth in spring. For the calibration, we used detailed data fromfive different locations in Norway, covering a wide range of agroclimatic regions, day lengths (latitudesfrom 59◦to 70◦N) and soil conditions. The total dataset included 11 variables, notably above-ground drymatter, leaf area index, tiller density, content of C reserves, and frost tolerance. All data were used inthe calibration. When BASGRA was run with the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) parameter vector fromthe single, Bayesian calibration, nearly all measured variables were simulated to an overall normalizedroot mean squared error (NRMSE) < 0.5. For many site × experiment combinations, NRMSE was <0.3. Thetemporal dynamics were captured well for most variables, as evaluated by comparing simulated timecourses versus data for the individual sites. The results may suggest that BASGRA is a reasonably robustmodel, allowing for simulation of growth and several important underlying processes with acceptableaccuracy for a range of agroclimatic conditions. However, the robustness of the model needs to be testedfurther using independent data from a wide range of growing conditions. Finally we show an exampleof application of the model, comparing overwintering risks in two climatically different sites, and dis-cuss future model applications. Further development work should include improved simulation of thedynamics of C reserves, and validation of winter tiller dynamics against independent data.
Sammendrag
I dette studiet analyserte vi miljøeffekter av å produsere erter og åkerbønner i et korndominert vekstskifte på en gård ved Oslofjorden ved hjelp av livsløpsanalyse (LCA). Miljøeffekter av høsthvetedyrking (samme gård) ble tatt med som referanse. Miljøeffektene ble uttrykt gjennom følgende ni miljøindikatorer; globalt oppvarmingspotensial, eutrofiering av ferskvann, eutrofiering av marine miljøer, økotoksisitet i ferskvann, terrestrisk forsuring, forbruk av fossil energi, human toksisitet, økotoksisitet i marine miljø og terrestrisk økotoksisitet. Systemgrensen ble definert til å være lik gårdens fysiske grense og analysen dekket alle de viktigste prosessene inkludert i omvandlingen fra råstoff til produkt leveringsklart ved gårdsgrinda («cradle to farmgate»). Studien omfattet også prosesser som ofte utelates i LCA-studier, slik som produksjon av maskiner, bygninger og produksjon og bruk av plantevernmidler, samt humusmineralisering og utslipp av NOx fra mineralgjødsel. Tidsperioden for analysen var ett fullt produksjonsår, og for alle data brukte vi gjennomsnittsverdier for tiåret 2001-2010. Funksjonell enhet var enten ett kilo lagringsklart produkt (85% tørrstoff) eller ett kilo protein. Når funksjonell enhet var per kg produkt ble det globale oppvarmingspotensialet for henholdsvis erter og åkerbønner 0,94 og 0,80 kg CO2-ekvivalenter, og dermed på nivå med det vi har funnet tidligere for norskprodusert korn. Med 1 kg protein som funksjonell enhet var tilsvarende verdier 5,0 og 3,1 kg CO2-ekvivalenter. Hvis dette proteinet i stedet skulle blitt produsert i form av melk eller kjøtt, ville oppvarmingspotensialet blitt vesentlig større. Basert på tall fra noen av våre tidligere studier med tilsvarende metodikk, kom vi fram til at oppvarmingspotensialet per kg protein er 9-15 ganger høyere for melk og 14-29 ganger høyere for kjøtt (fra melkeproduksjonen) enn tilsvarende for de to proteinvekstene analysert her. Når alle de ni miljøindikatorene ble sett under ett viste resultatene at proteinet i åkerbønner ble produsert med et gjennomgående lavere miljøforavtrykk enn tilsvarende i høsthvete. Erter var delvis bedre, delvis dårligere enn høsthveten. En gjennomgang av proteinvekstene og deres vekstpotensial i Norge viste at potensialet for erter og åkervekster ligger på omtrent 230 000 daa til sammen. Det må også nevnes at oljevekster representerer en potensielt stor proteinkilde, med en proteinkonsentrasjon i frøet på 20-25% og et potensielt dyrkingsareal på ca. 380 000 daa. Proteinet i oljevekster brukes i dag nærmest utelukkende til fôr. Den volummessig viktigste vekstgruppen i Norge for produksjon av protein nyttbart for mennesker er imidlertid korn, som har et proteininnhold på 11-15% og et potensielt dyrkbart areal på godt over 3,3 mill. daa. Lokalklima og vær utgjør den mest begrensende faktoren for produksjon av vegetabilsk protein her til lands i dag.
Sammendrag
Food production contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Animal products – particularly meat from ruminants – generally have higher GHG emissions than plant products. Over the last few decades the global per capita consumption of animal products has increased. This has a negative impact on climate change, land and water availability, and human health. We are faced with the two-fold challenge of reducing GHG emissions while still producing enough food for our growing population. Part of the solution could be for consumers to change towards a more sustainable diet. In this paper we take Norway as a case study for estimating optimal taxes and subsidies on different food items which can change consumption patterns in order to reduce the GHG emissions derived from the average Norwegian diet. In the estimate we ensure that the average calorie intake with the new diet remains the same as with the current diet, and factor in other health considerations. Our findings suggest that limited but useful emission reduction targets can be set with only a few changes in diets. The methodology presented in this paper may be used to estimate optimal climate taxes and subsidies under different emission, quantities, taxes, subsidies, and health constraints.
Sammendrag
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