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Publications

NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.

2022

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Abstract

The use of Bayesian networks (BN) for environmental risk assessment has increased in recent years as they offer a more transparent way to characterize risk and evaluate uncertainty than the traditional risk assessment paradigms. In this study, a novel probabilistic approach applying a BN for risk calculation was further developed and explored by linking the calculation a risk quotient to alternative future scenarios. This extended version of the BN model uses predictions from a process-based pesticide exposure model (World Integrated System for Pesticide Exposure - WISPE) in the exposure characterization and toxicity test data in the effect characterization. The probability distributions for exposure and effect are combined into a risk characterization (i.e. the probability distribution of a risk quotient), a common measure of the exceedance of an environmentally safe exposure threshold. The BN model was used to account for variabilities of the predicted pesticide exposure in agricultural streams, and inter-species variability in sensitivity to the pesticide among freshwater species. In Northern Europe, future climate scenarios typically predict increased temperature and precipitation, which can be expected to cause an increase in weed infestations, plant disease and insect pests. Such climate-related changes in pest pressure in turn can give rise to altered agricultural practices, such as increased pesticide application rates, as an adaptation to climate change. The WISPE model was used to link a set of scenarios consisting of two climate models, three pesticide application scenarios and three periods (year ranges), for a case study in South-East Norway. The model was set up for the case study by specifying environmental factors such as soil properties and field slope together with chemical properties of pesticides to predict the pesticide exposure in streams adjacent to the agricultural fields. The model was parameterized and evaluated for five selected pesticides: the three herbicides clopyralid, fluroxypyr-meptyl, and 2-(4-chloro-2-methylphenoxy) acetic acid (MCPA), and the two fungicides prothiocanzole and trifloxystrobin. This approach enabled the calculation and visualization of probability distribution of the risk quotients for the future time horizons 2050 and 2085. The risk posed by the pesticides were in general low for this case study, with highest probability of the risk quotient exceeding 1 for the two herbicides fluroxypyr-meptyl and MCPA. The future climate projections used here resulted in only minor changes in predicted exposure concentrations and thereby future risk. However, a stronger increase in risk was predicted for the scenarios with increased pesticide application, which can represent an adaptation to a future climate with higher pest pressures. In the current study, the specific BN model predictions were constrained by an existing set of climate projections which represented only one IPCC scenario (A1B) and two climate models. Further advancement of the BN modelling demonstrated herein, including more recent climate scenarios and a larger set of climate models, is anticipated to result in more relevant risk characterization also for future climate conditions. This probabilistic approach will have the potential to aid targeted management of ecological risks in support of future research, industry and regulatory needs.

Abstract

Environmental conditions during plant raising determine the yield potential of everbearing strawberries. We studied the effect of three rooting dates in the cultivars ‘Favori’ and ‘Murano’ in a greenhouse with 18 ℃ and 20-h long day and under outdoor conditions in Norway. The highest yield of 1.350 g/plant was obtained in ‘Favori’ plants rooted on 1 August and raised outdoors, being at level with ‘Favori’ plants produced in The Netherlands. High yields were mainly related to fruit size and less to fruit number, and determined by a complex three-factor interaction of rooting date, raising environment, and cultivar. The seasonal pattern of fruit flushes and off periods varied significantly between cultivars and treatments. The large first flush of high yielding ‘Favori’ plants was associated with a long off period, while the small first flush in ‘Murano’ resulted in a more even crop distribution. Earliness of ripening and berry harvest was superior in ‘Favori’, which had a larger share of its crop during the first half-season. We conclude that it is possible by choosing the right rooting date and raising environment to produce plants with the same high quality and yield potential under the cool Nordic conditions as those currently produced in Central Europe.

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Abstract

The study was performed with apple cultivar ‘Rubin’ grafted onto dwarf ‘P60’ rootstock at the experimental orchard of the Institute of Horticulture, Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, between 2016 and 2020. The orchard was planted in 2010. Planting distances were 1.25×3.5 m. Seven treatments of tree vigour control were established, including combinations of mechanical pruning, tree trunk incision and application of prohexadione-calcium (Pro-Ca). The strongest growth was recorded for the control treatment, where slender spindle trees were maintained manually. Significantly, the shortest shoots grew where mechanical pruning was applied. A tendency for higher yield was recorded for mechanical pruning treatments. Trunk incision and summer pruning exhibited significantly lower fruit mean weight and diameter. Multiple applications of Pro-Ca increased fruit weight. Less colored fruits were obtained for mechanical pruning treatments

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Abstract

Many forestry roles have changed from being manual tasks with a high physical workload to being a machine operator task with a high mental workload. Automation can support a decrease in mental fatigue by removing tasks that are repetitive and monotonous for the operators. Cable yarding presents an ideal opportunity for early adoption of automation technology; specifically the carriage movement along a defined corridor. A Valentini V-850 cable yarder was used in an Italian harvesting setting, in order to gauge the ergonomic benefit of carriage control automation. The study showed that automating yarder carriage movements improved the ergonomic situation of the workers directly involved in the related primary tasks. However, the caveat is that improving one work task may negatively affect the other work tasks, and therefore introducing automation to a worksite must be done after considering all impacts on the whole system. Practitioner summary: Automation decreased the winch operator’s mental workload while improving overall productivity. At the same time, the mental and physiological workload of the operator tasked with bucking were slightly increased. Ideally, winch automation should be coupled with bucking mechanisation to balance the intervention and boost both operator well-being and productivity.