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Publications

NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.

2026

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Warming‐driven intensification of the hydrological cycle is altering global rainfall patterns. However, the relative importance of changes in the amount versus timing of rainfall and the role of atmospheric drivers of moisture demand in modifying relationships between rainfall, biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are currently unresolved. To address this, we undertook a 10‐year rainfall manipulation experiment in a mesic grassland in New South Wales, Australia. We used rain shelters to achieve five rainfall treatments: (i) ambient, (ii) ambient +50% (IA), (iii) ambient −50% (RA), (iv) reduced frequency (RF, cumulative ambient rainfall applied once every 3 weeks) and (v) summer drought (SD, no rain during the Austral summer). We found that inter‐annual variation in ANPP was best explained by the amount of growing season rainfall relative to potential evapotranspiration (i.e., P/PET, or aridity) (R 2 adj 0.52). Reductions in the amount of rainfall, particularly during summer, were associated with productivity decline, shifts in community composition and a loss of diversity. However, reducing the frequency of rain events had no overall effect on productivity, despite a loss of species diversity. Notably, treatment‐related declines in diversity and/or richness were associated with both increases (IA) and decreases (SD) in temporal stability of ANPP and the stabilising role of species asynchrony, thereby highlighting the importance of species identity and associated functional traits for community stability. Our study uniquely emphasises the importance of accounting for seasonal drivers of moisture demand when predicting functional responses to changes in rainfall regimes and highlights how the ecological mechanisms underpinning community stability are influenced by changes in both the amount and timing of rainfall. These mechanistic insights can enhance the predictive capacity of Earth system models and inform targeted management strategies to offset the negative effects of future, more extreme rainfall on the ecosystem services provided by global grasslands.

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The capacity of nutrient-limited forests to enhance carbon (C) sequestration under elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) remains a critical uncertainty in C cycle modeling. While existing evidence suggests that low phosphorus (P) bioavailability may constrain CO 2 fertilization effects on plant growth, the extent to which this limitation modulates ecosystem responses to eCO 2 in forests adapted to P-deficient soils remains poorly understood. Here, using eight P-enabled models, we simulated the magnitudes and mechanisms through which P bioavailability interacts with eCO 2 , emulating an ecosystem-scale P enrichment experiment at a P-limited Eucalyptus forest undergoing long-term Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment. While models predicted pronounced P effects on tree growth, P enrichment unexpectedly did not increase the CO 2 effects on tree growth and ecosystem C sequestration. Models prioritized either CO 2 -driven or P-driven growth, but rarely both. This tradeoff emerged due to model-specific assumptions on 1) partitioning of the extra P in soil labile versus nonlabile pools; 2) plant photosynthetic acclimation to P deficiency; 3) C and nutrient use strategies regulating plant size and allocation; and 4) microbial-driven soil decomposition processes. By generating divergent yet biologically plausible outcomes, these predictions establish critical testable hypotheses for empirical research and highlight multiple P-related pathways that may influence the future land C sink.

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DNA methylation can change DNA properties, affecting chromatin accessibility, gene expression, and phenotypic variation. In clonal Norway spruce, warmer (WE) versus cooler (CE) embryogenic conditions produce phenotypically dif ferent trees. This climatic memory, induced during embryogenesis, remains stable in the resulting epitype trees, and the epigenetically altered timing of bud phenology persists between WE and CE epitypes even after decades under common garden conditions. We examined DNA methylation patterns in 14-year-old epitypes throughout the annual developmental cycle. Using targeted bisulfite sequencing, we screened for differential DNA methylation over a 3000 bp region in 2744 genes related to the epigenetic machinery, circadian clock, and phenology. Clustering DNA methylation differences in the CG context clearly separated epitype trees, confirming epigenetic mark differences. Differences in methylation of cytosines in all contexts were highly dynamic and varied markedly among annual developmental stages, suggesting the existence of circannual clocks affecting methylation levels in the studied genomic regions. Most stable methylation marks were identified in CG contexts, fewer in CHG and none in CHH contexts, consistent with differences in inheritance among methylation con texts. We identified stable CG and CHG methylation marks in the promoter regions of 30 specific genes. Two ARGONAUTE genes and 4 other genes exhibited stable marks across all time points for CE or WE, and putative embryo–adult transmission for some genes. These findings indicate that DNA methylation marks maintained in genomic regions throughout the annual cycle may contribute to an induced epigenetic memory established in embryos and later manifested as phenologically dif ferent epitype trees.

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Abstract Peatlands drained for agriculture and other uses release substantial carbon dioxide. Many countries estimate these emissions using the 2014 IPCC Tier 1 emission factors. Here we calibrated an ecosystem model with data from two cultivated peatland sites in Norway and simulate carbon dioxide emissions at 50 sites nationwide for 2001–2022. Model results showed that carbon dioxide emissions were strongly controlled by water table depth and aligned well with observations from other European peatlands of similar climate zones. Crucially, the Tier 1 emission factor matched our simulations only under very deep water tables (< –0.7 m), but overestimated emissions by 31–88% when water levels ranged from –0.7 m to –0.3 m. This indicates that Tier 1 methods may overstate emissions from cultivated peatlands in cool temperate and boreal regions, inflating estimates of mitigation potential. Tier 2 or 3 approaches can reduce uncertainty but require more field data.

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Plant selection is critical for the performance and long-term functionality of NBS. However, selecting suitable species remains challenging due to factors such as the need to balance multiple performance criteria. This study addressed this gap by proposing a structured decision-making framework for roadside rain gardens (RGs) in cold climates, based on three objectives, thirteen criteria, and sixteen quantitative metrics scored on a 1–5 scale. The framework was tested on five plant species commonly used in RGs in Norway to demonstrate its application and assess data availability for the metrics. Results showed that the evaluated plant species exhibit different strengths across objectives: for instance, Bolboschoenus maritimus excelled in plant procurement and establishment support, while Iris pseudacorus scored highest in functions of interest. Consequently, a combination of high-performing species was recommended for RG vegetation design. While the framework was successfully applied, limited data for some metrics required assumptions, highlighting the need for more comprehensive species-specific databases. Given the critical role of plants in the success of NBS, it is recommended that the framework be integrated into official RG design guidelines, with criteria tailored to local conditions.