Publications
NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.
2017
Authors
Valentina Krysanova Tobias Vetter Stephanie Eisner Shaochun Huang Ilias Pechlivanidis Michael Strauch Alexander Gelfan Rohini Kumar Valentin Aich Berit Arheimer Alejandro Chamorro Ann van Griensven Dipangkar Kundu Anastasia Lobanova Vimal Mishra Stefan Plötner Julia Reinhardt Ousmane Seidou Xiaoyan Wang Michel Wortmann Xiaofan Zeng Fred F. HattermannAbstract
An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971–2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070–2099 in relation to the reference period 1975–2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q10 and Q90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57% for GCMs, 27% for RCPs, and 16% for hydrological models.
Authors
Yusuke Satoh Taher Kahil Edward Byers Peter Burek Günther Fischer Sylvia Tramberend Peter Greve Martina Flörke Stephanie Eisner Naota Hanasaki Piotr Magnuszewski Luzma Fabiola Nava William Cosgrove Simon Langan Yoshihide WadaAbstract
This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water sup- ply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30–40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6–2 bil- lion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.
Authors
Luis Samaniego Rohini Kumar Stephan Thober Oldrich Rakovec Matthias Zink Niko Wanders Stephanie Eisner Hannes Müller Schmied Edwin Sutanudjaja Kirsten Warrach-Sagi Sabine AttingerAbstract
No abstract has been registered
Abstract
The extractive content of inner and outer heartwood of nine Scots pine trees from three different stands in Norway was determined by automated solvent extraction and biological screening tests were performed using basidiomycetes. The evaluation of mass spectra by means of a NIST library search shows that in the petroleum ether extracts α-pinene and carene as well as terpinene and cadinene derivatives are the main extractives found in both inner and outer heartwood. In the inner heartwood, however, these substance groups were found in lower quantities. These substances mainly have a hydrophobic effect. The screening tests indicate that also extractive-rich heartwood is extremely degraded by Poria placenta which corresponds to the analytical results of the petroleum ether extracts.
Authors
Jogeir N. StoklandAbstract
No abstract has been registered
Authors
Kris Verheyen Pieter De Frenne Lander Baeten Donald M. Waller Radim Hédl Michael P. Perring Haben Blondeel Jörg Brunet Markéta Chudomelová Guillaume Decocq Emiel De Lombaerde Leen Depauw Thomas Dirnböck Tomasz Durak Ove Eriksson Frank S. Gilliam Thilo Heinken Steffi Heinrichs Martin Hermy Bogdan Jaroszewicz Michael A. Jenkins Sarah E. Johnson Keith J. Kirby Martin Kopecký Dries Landuyt Jonathan Lenoir Daijiang Li Martin Macek Sybryn L. Maes František Máliš Fraser J.G. Mitchell Tobias Naaf George Peterken Petr Petřík Kamila Reczyńska David A Rogers Fride Høistad Schei Wolfgang Schmidt Tibor Standovár Krzysztof Świerkosz Karol Ujházy Hans Van Calster Mark Vellend Ondřej Vild Kerry Woods Monika Wulf Markus Bernhardt-RömermannAbstract
More and more ecologists have started to resurvey communities sampled in earlier decades to determine long-term shifts in community composition and infer the likely drivers of the ecological changes observed. However, to assess the relative importance of and interactions among multiple drivers, joint analyses of resurvey data from many regions spanning large environmental gradients are needed. In this article, we illustrate how combining resurvey data from multiple regions can increase the likelihood of driver orthogonality within the design and show that repeatedly surveying across multiple regions provides higher representativeness and comprehensiveness, allowing us to answer more completely a broader range of questions. We provide general guidelines to aid the implementation of multiregion resurvey databases. In so doing, we aim to encourage resurvey database development across other community types and biomes to advance global environmental change research.
Abstract
No abstract has been registered
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No abstract has been registered
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No abstract has been registered
Abstract
Successional dynamics in plant community assembly may result from both deterministic and stochastic ecological processes. The relative importance of different ecological processes is expected to vary over the successional sequence, between different plant functional groups, and with the disturbance levels and land-use management regimes of the successional systems. We evaluate the relative importance of stochastic and deterministic processes in bryophyte and vascular plant community assembly after fire in grazed and ungrazed anthropogenic coastal heathlands in Northern Europe. A replicated series of post-fire successions (n = 12) were initiated under grazed and ungrazed conditions, and vegetation data were recorded in permanent plots over 13 years. We used redundancy analysis (RDA) to test for deterministic successional patterns in species composition repeated across the replicate successional series and analyses of co-occurrence to evaluate to what extent species respond synchronously along the successional gradient. Change in species co-occurrences over succession indicates stochastic successional dynamics at the species level (i.e., species equivalence), whereas constancy in co-occurrence indicates deterministic dynamics (successional niche differentiation). The RDA shows high and deterministic vascular plant community compositional change, especially early in succession. Co-occurrence analyses indicate stochastic species-level dynamics the first two years, which then give way to more deterministic replacements. Grazed and ungrazed successions are similar, but the early stage stochasticity is higher in ungrazed areas. Bryophyte communities in ungrazed successions resemble vascular plant communities. In contrast, bryophytes in grazed successions showed consistently high stochasticity and low determinism in both community composition and species co-occurrence. In conclusion, stochastic and individualistic species responses early in succession give way to more niche-driven dynamics in later successional stages. Grazing reduces predictability in both successional trends and species-level dynamics, especially in plant functional groups that are not well adapted to disturbance. bryophytes; burning; Calluna vulgaris; coexistence; conservation management; determinism; disturbance; grazing; heathland; randomization test; stochasticity; vascular plants.