The report "Climate in Norway 2100" (Bauer-Hansen et al 2015), with new climate scenarioes for Norway, was published in 2015. The report emphasize the fact that large uncertainties consists, thereby regarding how the GHG emissions will change in the future. It is recommended to base the planning for the next 10 - 20 years on climate data from the period 1985 - 2014 instead of extrapolations.
We are currently facing more frequent extreme weather events with floods, landslides and increased erosion. The report outlines the following expected changes towards the end of this century:
- Increased annual temperature with approx 4,5 °C (3,3 - 6,4°C ) at the highest GHG emission scenario
- Increase in annual precipitation on approx 18 % (7-23 %) but this will vary between regions and seasons
- Heavier and more frequent episodes of rainfall
- Fewer snow melting floods
- Increased runnof during winter
- Less or no snow in lowland areas
How will these climate changes affect the agriculture, and which measures can be done to reduce the impacts? NIBIO is working with these issues on several topics (choice of plants, plant diseases, pests etc.). We are in this guide focusing on measures which can reduce soil loss and pollution of water in a changing climate. Take also a look at the Climate change adaptation website from the Norwegian Environment Agency.