Publications
NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.
2021
Authors
Matthias KoeslingAbstract
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Abstract
This paper describes a tool that enables farmers to time harvests and target nitrogen (N) inputs in their forage production, according to the prevailing yield potential. Based on an existing grass growth model for forage yield estimation, a more detailed process-based model was developed, including a new nitrogen module. The model was tested using data from an experiment conducted in a grassland-rich region in central Norway and showed promising accuracy with estimated root mean square error (RMSE) of 50 and 130 g m-2 for dry matter yield in the trial. Three parameters were detected as highly sensitive to model output: initial value of organic N in the soil, fraction of humus in the initial organic N in the soil, and fraction of decomposed N mineralized. By varying these parameters within a range from 0.5 to 1.5 of their respective initial value, most of the within-field variation was captured. In a future step, remotely sensed information on model output will be included, and in-season model correction will be performed through re-calibration of the highly sensitive parameters.
Abstract
Late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans is a serious, worldwide disease on potato (Solanum tuberosum). Phytophthora infestans normally reproduces in a clonal manner, but in some areas, as the Nordic Countries, sexual reproduction has become the major determinant of the population structure. To improve the late blight forecasting in Norway, the process-based Nærstad model was developed. The model includes the structure of the underlying processes in the disease development, including spore production, spore release, spore survival and infection of P. infestans. It needs hourly weather records of air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, leaf wetness and global radiation. The model contained 19 uncertain parameters, and from a sensitivity analysis, 12 were detected as weakly sensitive to model outputs and fixed to a nominal value within their prior boundaries. The remaining seven parameters were detected as more sensitive to model outputs and were parameterized using maximum a'posteriori (MAP) estimates, calculated through Bayesian calibration. The model was developed based on literature combined with field data of daily observed number of lesions on trap plants of the Bintje cultivar (late blight susceptible) at Ås during the seasons 2006-2008 and 2010-2011. It was further tested on daily observed number of lesions on trap plants of the cultivars Bintje, Saturna (medium susceptible) and Peik (medium resistant) at Ås during the seasons 2012-2015. For all three cultivars, the Nærstad model improved with a higher model accuracy compared to the existing HOSPO-model and the Førsund rules that both have shown relatively good correlation with blight development in field evaluations in Norway. The best accuracy was found for Bintje (0.83) closely followed by Saturna (0.79), whereas a much lower accuracy was detected for Peik (0.66).
Abstract
Leaf blotch diseases (LBD), such as Septoria nodorum bloch (Parastagnospora nodorum), Septoria tritici blotch (Zymoseptoria tritici) and Tan spot (Pyrenophora tritici-repentis) can cause severe yield losses (up to 50%) in Norwegian spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) and are mainly controlled by fungicide applications. A forecasting model to predict disease risk can be an important tool to optimize disease control. The association between specific weather variables and the development of LBD differs between wheat growth stages. In this study, a mathematical model to estimate phenological development of spring wheat was derived based on sowing date, air temperature and photoperiod. Weather factors associated with LBD severity were then identified for selected phenological growth stages by a correlation study of LBD severity data (17 years). Although information regarding host resistance and previous crop were added to the identified weather factors, two purely weather-based risk prediction models (CART, classification and regression tree algorithm) and one black box model (KNN, based on K nearest neighbor algorithm) were most accurate to predict moderate to high LBD severity (>5% infection). The predictive accuracy of these models (76–83%) was compared to that of two existing models used in Norway and Denmark (60 and 61% accuracy, respectively). The newly developed models performed better than the existing models, but still had the tendency to overestimate disease risk. Specificity of the new models varied between 49 and 74% compared to 40 and 37% for the existing models. These new models are promising decision tools to improve integrated LBD management of spring wheat in Norway.
Abstract
To hundre mjølkebruk i Midt-Norge blei delt i tre nesten like store grupper; 'Låg' (68 gardar), 'Medium' (67 gardar) og 'Høg' (68 garder), etter årleg tildeling av kraftfôr til mjølkekyrne for å teste effekten av kraftfôrnivå på indikatorar for miljøpåverknad og økonomisk lønsemd. Gjennomsnittleg årleg kraftfôrnivå per ku var 15,4, 18,8 og 21,7 GJ nettoenergi laktasjon (NEL) og årleg avdrått i energikorrigert mjølk (EKM) per ku var 7868, 8421 og 8906 kg i høvesvis 'Låg', ‘Medium’og ‘Høg’. Standard livsløpsanalyse og dekningsbidrag blei brukt til å bestemme indikatorar for miljøpåverknad og økonomiske resultat av mjølk- og kjøttproduksjon. Den funksjonelle eininga var mengde 2,78 MJ spiseleg energi, tilsvarande 1,0 kg EKM eller 0,42 kg kjøtt eller en kombinasjon av mjølk og kjøtt som utgjer 2,78 MJ, altså EKM ekvivalent i mjølk og kjøtt levert EKM-eq. Det globale oppvarmingspotensialet, energiintensiteten og nitrogenintensiteten var i gjennomsnitt 1,46 kg CO2- eq./kg EKM-eq., 5,61 MJ energibruk/kg EKM-eq., og 6,83 N input/N-produkt, og var ikkje forskjellig mellom gruppene. Gardar med ‘Låg’ kraftfôrtildeling brukte mindre areal av total arealbruk til dyrking av innkjøpt fôr utanfor garden enn de i ‘Høg’ (0,39 vs. 0,46 daa/daa), men det totale arealet som blei brukt per kg EKM-eq. var større ('Låg' 3,24 vs. 'Høg' 2,84 m2/kg EKM-eq.). Dekningsbidraget per kg EKM-eq. levert var i gjennomsnitt høgare på 'Låg' gardar (6,57 NOK/kg EKM-eq.) enn 'Medium' (6,04 NOK/ kg EKM-eq.) og 'Høg' (5,73 NOK/kg ECM-eq.). Vår analyse viser at høgare kraftfôrnivå ikkje alltid gir mindre global oppvarmingspotensiale og mengd fossil energi per kg mjølk og kjøtt produsert samanlikna med lågare kraftfôrnivå.
Authors
Gillian Butler Bjørn Egil Flø Flaviana Gottardo Anna Hessle Matthias Koesling Elisabet Nadeau Carsten Malisch Giorgia Riuzzi Tomasz Sakowski Anna Woodhouse Finn Walland Håvard SteinshamnAbstract
SusCatt considered a wide range of innovations or system comparisons in the 6 countries, all aimed to improve sustainability within European cattle farming. On the whole, these involved reducing production intensity, making greater use of home-grown grass and other forage crops on farms – generally with promising results for beef and dairy production when we considered their potential impact across the 3 pillars of sustainability...
2020
Authors
Matthias KoeslingAbstract
The LCA-model FARMnor (Flow Analysis and Resource Management for Norway) was updated to run using the new Umberto LCA+ version. This update allows also to get access to the new ecoinvent LCA-database version 3.x.
Authors
Jan Emblemsvåg Nina Pereira Kvadsheim Jon Halfdanarson Matthias Koesling Bjørn Tore Nystrand Jan Sunde Celine ReboursAbstract
Soy protein concentrate (SPC) is a key ingredient in fish feed and most of it originates from Brazil. However, the Brazilian soy industry has reportedly resulted in significant environmental problems including deforestation. Consequently, new sources for protein are investigated and protein extracted from farmed seaweed is considered an alternative. Therefore, we investigate how seaweed protein product (SPP) can compete against SPC as a protein ingredient for fish feed. The study uses the positioning matrix, cost analyses involving the power law, and uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations, and key research challenges are identified. The initial finding is that, with the emerging seaweed industry, the cost of producing SPP is too high to be competitive for fish feed applications. To overcome this challenge, two solutions are investigated. First, substantial investments in cultivation and processing infrastructure are needed to accomplish scale, and a break-even scale of 65,000 tonnes is suggested. The second but more promising avenue, preferably in combination with the former, is the extraction of seaweed protein and high-value seaweed components. With mannitol and laminaran as co-products to the SPP, there is a 25–30% probability of a positive bottom line. Researches on extraction processes are therefore a necessity to maximize the extraction of value-added ingredients. Over time, it is expected that the competitive position of SPP will improve due to the upscaling of the volume of production as well as better biorefinery processes.
Abstract
En har i denne studien undersøkt potensialet for å erstatte fossilt drivstoff med elektrisk energi fra batterier og/eller hydrogenbrenselceller i traktorarbeidet på norske gårder. Dette ble gjort med utgangspunkt i seksten små og store modellgårder på Østlandet, i Trøndelag og i Rogaland. Disse var korngårder med og uten husdyr, og melkeproduksjonsbruk. Det årlige dieselforbruket i alle traktordrevne arbeidsoperasjoner ble beregnet og videre tidfestet og fordelt gjennom året. For alle brukstyper var det høye topper med mye traktorarbeid knyttet til pløying og/eller spredning av husdyrgjødsel om våren og til innhøsting og pløying om høsten...