Publications
NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.
2018
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Athanasios Markou George D. ManolisAbstract
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Alexandre Foito Derek StewartAbstract
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Gregor Kalinkat, Tea Ammunet Madeleine Barton Andrea Battisti Sanford D. Eigenbrode Jane Uhd Jepsen Philipp Lehmann Seppo Neuvonen Pekka Niemelä Bjørn Økland John s. Terblanche Christer BjörkmanAbstract
Recently, Deutsch and colleagues(1) projected future increases in yield losses to insect pests of the three globally most important staple crops under different climate change scenarios. Their results are based on model simulations parameterized with thermal sensitivity analyses of population growth and metabolic rates from a geographically and functionally diverse set of insect species taken from an earlier study(2). A subset of the original data compilation was then used to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitudes(3). More precisely, the derived thermal-dependence of fitness for globally distributed terrestrial insect species was integrated with projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century (3). These models were then deployed in the new study investigating potential yield losses in three specific crops(1). We submit that Deutsch and colleagues rely on inadequate empirical data for their model parameterization to estimate pest-related crop losses. Strikingly, their source data did not include major pest taxa of the focal staple crops and were not restricted to herbivores despite that temperature-dependence of metabolic and performance responses are known to vary substantially among trophic levels and functional groups(4,5). Hence, the inferences drawn by Deutsch and colleagues(1) may be unreliable. Mitigating potential climate change responses of pest organisms jeopardizing future food security can only be successful if they are based on high-quality information relevant to the crop system in question(6). References 1. C. A. Deutsch et al., Science. 361, 916–919 (2018). 2. M. R. Frazier, R. B. Huey, D. Berrigan, Am. Nat. 168, 512–520 (2006). 3. C. A. Deutsch et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105, 6668–6672 (2008). 4. A. I. Dell, S. Pawar, V. M. Savage, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108, 10591–10596 (2011). 5. A. I. Dell, S. Pawar, V. M. Savage, J. Anim. Ecol. 83, 70–84 (2014). 6. P. Lehmann et al., bioRxiv (2018), doi:10.1101/425488.
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Inghild Økland Agnar Kvalbein Wendy Marie Waalen Lise Bjørnstad Trygve S. Aamlid Tatsiana EspevigAbstract
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