Publications
NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.
2020
Authors
Gunnhild SøgaardAbstract
No abstract has been registered
Authors
Hermine Mitter Anja-K. Techen Franz Sinabell Katharina Helming Erwin Schmid Benjamin Leon Bodirsky Ian Holman Kasper Kok Heikki Lehtonen Adrian Leip Chantal Le Mouel Erik Mathijs Bano Mehdi Klaus Mittenzwei Olivier Mora Knut Øistad Lillian Øygarden Jörg A. Priess Pytrik Reidsma Rüdiger Schaldach Martin SchönhartAbstract
Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.
Abstract
As a carbon dioxide removal measure, the Norwegian government is currently considering a policy of large-scale planting of spruce (Picea abies (L) H. Karst) on lands in various states of natural transition to a forest dominated by deciduous broadleaved tree species. Given the aspiration to bring emissions on balance with removals in the latter half of the 21st century in effort to limit the global mean temperature rise to “well below” 2°C, the effectiveness of such a policy is unclear given relatively low spruce growth rates in the region. Further convoluting the picture is the magnitude and relevance of surface albedo changes linked to such projects, which typically counteract the benefits of an enhanced forest CO2 sink in high-latitude regions. Here, we carry out a rigorous empirically based assessment of the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale spruce planting in Norway, taking into account transient developments in both terrestrial carbon sinks and surface albedo over the 21st century and beyond. We find that surface albedo changes would likely play a negligible role in counteracting tCDR, yet given low forest growth rates in the region, notable tCDR benefits from such projects would not be realized until the second half of the 21st century, with maximum benefits occurring even later around 2150. We estimate Norway's total accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 and 2150 (including surface albedo changes) to be 447 (±240) and 852 (±295) Mt CO2-eq. at mean net present values of US$ 12 (±3) and US$ 13 (±2) per ton CDR, respectively. For perspective, the accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 represents around 8 years of Norway's total current annual production-based (i.e., territorial) CO2-eq. emissions.
Authors
Hanne Kathrine Sjølie Clara Antón Fernández Luiz Goulart Jogeir N. Stokland Gregory S. Latta Birger SolbergAbstract
No abstract has been registered
2019
Authors
Lalisa A. Duguma Joanes Atela Peter A. Minang Alemayehu N. Ayana Belachew Gizachew Zeleke Judith M. Nzyoka Florence BernardAbstract
Deforestation and forest degradation (D&D) in the tropics have continued unabated and are posing serious threats to forests and the livelihoods of those who depend on forests and forest resources. Smallholder farmers are often implicated in scientific literature and policy documents as important agents of D&D. However, there is scanty information on why smallholders exploit forests and what the key drivers are. We employed behavioral sciences approaches that capture contextual factors, attitudinal factors, and routine practices that shape decisions by smallholder farmers. Data was collected using household surveys and focus group discussions in two case study forests—Menagesha Suba Forest in Ethiopia and Maasai Mau Forest in Kenya. Our findings indicate that factors that forced farmers to engage in D&D were largely contextual, i.e., sociodemographic, production factors constraint, as well as policies and governance issues with some influences of routine practices such as wood extraction for fuelwood and construction. Those factors can be broadly aggregated as necessity-driven, market-driven, and governance-driven. In the forests studied, D&D are largely due to necessity needs and governance challenges. Though most factors are intrinsic to smallholders’ context, the extent and impact on D&D were largely aggravated by factors outside the forest landscape. Therefore, policy efforts to reduce D&D should carefully scrutinize the context, the factors, and the associated enablers to reduce forest losses under varying socioeconomic, biophysical, and resource governance conditions.
Authors
Bjørn Hallvard Samset Camilla Weum Stjern Marianne Tronstad Lund Christian Wilhelm Mohr Maria Sand Anne Sophie DalozAbstract
The climate is an aggregate of the mean and variability of a range of meteorological variables, notably temperature (T) and precipitation (P). While the impacts of an increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are commonly quantified through changes in regional means and extreme value distributions, a concurrent shift in the shapes of the distributions of daily T and P is arguably equally important. Here, we employ a 30‐member ensemble of coupled climate model simulations (CESM1 LENS) to consistently quantify the changes of regionally and seasonally resolved probability density functions of daily T and P as function of GMST. Focusing on aggregate regions covering both populated and rural zones, we identify large regional and seasonal diversity in the probability density functions and quantify where CESM1 projects the most noticeable changes compared to the preindustrial era. As global temperature increases, Europe and the United States are projected to see a rapid reduction in wintertime cold days, and East Asia to experience a strong increase in intense summertime precipitation. Southern Africa may see a shift to a more intrinsically variable climate but with little change in mean properties. The sensitivities of Arctic and African intrinsic variability to GMST are found to be particularly high. Our results highlight the need to further quantify future changes to daily temperature and precipitation distributions as an integral part of preparing for the societal and ecological impacts of climate change and show how large ensemble simulations can be a useful tool for such research.
Authors
Christian Wilhelm MohrAbstract
No abstract has been registered
Authors
Knut ØistadAbstract
No abstract has been registered
Abstract
No abstract has been registered
Authors
O. Janne Kjønaas Ivika Ostonen Lars Vesterdal Raija Laiho Tuula Larmola Edda S. Oddsdóttir Zane Libiete Iveta Varnagirytė-KabašinskienėAbstract
No abstract has been registered