Publications
NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.
2020
Authors
Henrik Heräjärvi Pia Katila Mikko Kurttila Markus Lier Antti Mutanen Knut Øistad Johanna Routa Pekka Saranpää Anne Tolvanen Jari ViitanenEditors
Camilla WidmarkAbstract
The forests in Nordic countries have been a source of food, products and welfare for both local communities and for the nations as long as there has been any settlement. More recently, the way the forest supports the climate has become more pronounced. However, humans now face major challenges due to climate change as well as societal and environmental challenges. Fundamental changes are needed to ensure future prosperity in the face of growing resource depletion, climate changes and environmental degradation. What has become clear is that fossil dependence must be overcome and be replaced with bio-based materials and innovations to support the more efficient use of resources — thus, creating a more bioeconomy-based society. This report describes the role of the forest in bioeconomy transformation and green innovation in the northern part of Europe — Finland, Norway and Sweden — and highlights the challenges facing forests in this emerging bioeconomy. These countries are also part of the Barents area, thus the northern part of Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. In summary, the report discusses several common features and lessons learned from these countries: • Forests are crucial for the development of sustainable bioeconomy in the Nordic countries in substituting fossil fuel-based materials and energy. Forest biomass has a large potential for developing new bio-based products. • Bioeconomy and circular economy transformation depend on both technical and social innovations together with societies adapting to a bio-based sustainable future, which emphasises the ecologic, economic, and social functions of forests. In policymaking and forest management, synergies need to be realised and trade-offs evaluated and addressed in forest management in general. • Bioeconomy transformation is driven by the development of forest value chains and innovations based on forest biomass, in which research and development go hand in hand with investments and policy regulations. • Consumers are a main driver of bioeconomy transformation replacing the demand of fossil-based materials with bio-based. • Choices, both in policy and forest management, have to be made to support the continuous provision of all forest ecosystem services. • The contributions of forest to bioeconomy are regional, national, as well as cross-country (e.g. Baltic, Barents or Nordic), and international (e.g. EU) and the forest’s contribution to bioeconomy has to be considered in relation to properties of the forest, sustainability, innovations, knowledge development, green investment structures as well as national policies.
Authors
Liz Veerman Karsten Kalbitz Per Gundersen O. Janne Kjønaas Filip Moldan Patrick Schleppi Emiel E. van Loon Jorien Schoorl Wim Wessel Albert TietemaAbstract
Increased anthropogenic nitrogen (N) inputs can alter the N cycle and affect forest ecosystem functions. The impact of increased N deposition depends among others on the ultimate fate of N in plant and soil N pools. Short-term studies (3-18 months) have shown that the organic soil layer was the dominant sink for N. However, longer time scales are needed to investigate the long-term fate of N. Therefore, the soils of four experimental forest sites across Europe were re-sampled similar to 2 decades after labelling with(15)N. The sites covered a wide range of ambient N deposition varying from 13 to 58 kg N ha(-1)year(-1). To investigate the effects of different N loads on(15)N recovery, ambient N levels were experimentally increased or decreased. We hypothesized that: (1) the mineral soil would become the dominant(15)N sink after 2 decades, (2) long-term increased N deposition would lead to lower(15)N recovery levels in the soil and (3) variables related to C dynamics would have the largest impact on(15)N recovery in the soil. The results show that large amounts of the added(15)N remain in the soil after 2 decades and at 2 out of 4 sites the(15)N recovery levels are higher in the mineral soil than in the organic soil. The results show no clear responses of the isotopic signature to the changes in N deposition. Several environmental drivers are identified as controlling factors for long-term(15)N recovery. Most drivers that significantly contribute to(15)N recovery are strongly related to the soil organic matter (SOM) content. These findings are consistent with the idea that much of the added(15)N is immobilized in the SOM. In the organic soil layer, we identify C stock, thickness of the organic layer, N-status and mean annual temperature of the forest sites as most important controlling factors. In the mineral soil we identify C stock, C content, pH, moisture content, bulk density, temperature, precipitation and forest stand age as most important controlling factors. Overall, our results show that these temperate forests are capable of retaining long-term increased N inputs preferably when SOM availability is high and SOM turnover and N availability are low.
Abstract
Protected Areas (PAs) in Tanzania had been established originally for the goal of habitat, landscape and biodiversity conservation. However, human activities such as agricultural expansion and wood harvesting pose challenges to the conservation objectives. We monitored a decade of deforestation within 708 PAs and their unprotected buffer areas, analyzed deforestation by PA management regimes, and assessed connectivity among PAs. Data came from a Landsat based wall-to-wall forest to non-forest change map for the period 2002–2013, developed for the definition of Tanzania’s National Forest Reference Emissions Level (FREL). Deforestation data were extracted in a series of concentric bands that allow pairwise comparison and correlation analysis between the inside of PAs and the external buffer areas. Half of the PAs exhibit either no deforestation or significantly less deforestation than the unprotected buffer areas. A small proportion (10%; n = 71) are responsible for more than 90% of the total deforestation; but these few PAs represent more than 75% of the total area under protection. While about half of the PAs are connected to one or more other PAs, the remaining half, most of which are Forest Reserves, are isolated. Furthermore, deforestation inside isolated PAs is significantly correlated with deforestation in the unprotected buffer areas, suggesting pressure from land use outside PAs. Management regimes varied in reducing deforestation inside PA territories, but differences in protection status within a management regime are also large. Deforestation as percentages of land area and forested areas of PAs was largest for Forest Reserves and Game Controlled areas, while most National Parks, Nature Reserves and Forest Plantations generally retained large proportions of their forest cover. Areas of immediate management concern include the few PAs with a disproportionately large contribution to the total deforestation, and the sizeable number of PAs being isolated. Future protection should account for landscapes outside protected areas, engage local communities and establish new PAs or corridors such as village-managed forest areas.
Authors
Gunnhild SøgaardAbstract
No abstract has been registered
Authors
Hermine Mitter Anja-K. Techen Franz Sinabell Katharina Helming Erwin Schmid Benjamin Leon Bodirsky Ian Holman Kasper Kok Heikki Lehtonen Adrian Leip Chantal Le Mouel Erik Mathijs Bano Mehdi Klaus Mittenzwei Olivier Mora Knut Øistad Lillian Øygarden Jörg A. Priess Pytrik Reidsma Rüdiger Schaldach Martin SchönhartAbstract
Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.
Abstract
As a carbon dioxide removal measure, the Norwegian government is currently considering a policy of large-scale planting of spruce (Picea abies (L) H. Karst) on lands in various states of natural transition to a forest dominated by deciduous broadleaved tree species. Given the aspiration to bring emissions on balance with removals in the latter half of the 21st century in effort to limit the global mean temperature rise to “well below” 2°C, the effectiveness of such a policy is unclear given relatively low spruce growth rates in the region. Further convoluting the picture is the magnitude and relevance of surface albedo changes linked to such projects, which typically counteract the benefits of an enhanced forest CO2 sink in high-latitude regions. Here, we carry out a rigorous empirically based assessment of the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale spruce planting in Norway, taking into account transient developments in both terrestrial carbon sinks and surface albedo over the 21st century and beyond. We find that surface albedo changes would likely play a negligible role in counteracting tCDR, yet given low forest growth rates in the region, notable tCDR benefits from such projects would not be realized until the second half of the 21st century, with maximum benefits occurring even later around 2150. We estimate Norway's total accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 and 2150 (including surface albedo changes) to be 447 (±240) and 852 (±295) Mt CO2-eq. at mean net present values of US$ 12 (±3) and US$ 13 (±2) per ton CDR, respectively. For perspective, the accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 represents around 8 years of Norway's total current annual production-based (i.e., territorial) CO2-eq. emissions.
Authors
Hanne Kathrine Sjølie Clara Antón Fernández Luiz Goulart Jogeir N. Stokland Gregory S. Latta Birger SolbergAbstract
No abstract has been registered
2019
Authors
Lalisa A. Duguma Joanes Atela Peter A. Minang Alemayehu N. Ayana Belachew Gizachew Zeleke Judith M. Nzyoka Florence BernardAbstract
Deforestation and forest degradation (D&D) in the tropics have continued unabated and are posing serious threats to forests and the livelihoods of those who depend on forests and forest resources. Smallholder farmers are often implicated in scientific literature and policy documents as important agents of D&D. However, there is scanty information on why smallholders exploit forests and what the key drivers are. We employed behavioral sciences approaches that capture contextual factors, attitudinal factors, and routine practices that shape decisions by smallholder farmers. Data was collected using household surveys and focus group discussions in two case study forests—Menagesha Suba Forest in Ethiopia and Maasai Mau Forest in Kenya. Our findings indicate that factors that forced farmers to engage in D&D were largely contextual, i.e., sociodemographic, production factors constraint, as well as policies and governance issues with some influences of routine practices such as wood extraction for fuelwood and construction. Those factors can be broadly aggregated as necessity-driven, market-driven, and governance-driven. In the forests studied, D&D are largely due to necessity needs and governance challenges. Though most factors are intrinsic to smallholders’ context, the extent and impact on D&D were largely aggravated by factors outside the forest landscape. Therefore, policy efforts to reduce D&D should carefully scrutinize the context, the factors, and the associated enablers to reduce forest losses under varying socioeconomic, biophysical, and resource governance conditions.
Authors
Bjørn Hallvard Samset Camilla Weum Stjern Marianne Tronstad Lund Christian Wilhelm Mohr Maria Sand Anne Sophie DalozAbstract
The climate is an aggregate of the mean and variability of a range of meteorological variables, notably temperature (T) and precipitation (P). While the impacts of an increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) are commonly quantified through changes in regional means and extreme value distributions, a concurrent shift in the shapes of the distributions of daily T and P is arguably equally important. Here, we employ a 30‐member ensemble of coupled climate model simulations (CESM1 LENS) to consistently quantify the changes of regionally and seasonally resolved probability density functions of daily T and P as function of GMST. Focusing on aggregate regions covering both populated and rural zones, we identify large regional and seasonal diversity in the probability density functions and quantify where CESM1 projects the most noticeable changes compared to the preindustrial era. As global temperature increases, Europe and the United States are projected to see a rapid reduction in wintertime cold days, and East Asia to experience a strong increase in intense summertime precipitation. Southern Africa may see a shift to a more intrinsically variable climate but with little change in mean properties. The sensitivities of Arctic and African intrinsic variability to GMST are found to be particularly high. Our results highlight the need to further quantify future changes to daily temperature and precipitation distributions as an integral part of preparing for the societal and ecological impacts of climate change and show how large ensemble simulations can be a useful tool for such research.
Authors
Christian Wilhelm MohrAbstract
No abstract has been registered