Anders Bryn
Research Scientist
Biography
I work as a researcher in a 20 % position in the Department of Land Resource Surveys, Division of Survey and Statistics.
My work is primarily related to vegetation mapping, the project Arealregnskap i utmark (AR18X18), mountain farming and contributions to other departments (applications, articles, dissemination, etc.). I also generally contribute to the development, research and dissemination of methodology for mapping of outfield lands.
My subject areas are:
- vegetation mapping
- distribution modelling
- tree- and forest lines
- ecological climatology
- citizen science
- land use
I have a Master degree in vegetation ecology from the University of Oslo and a PhD in biogeography from the University of Bergen.
Abstract
Purpose Treelines and forest lines (TFLs) have received growing interest in recent decades, due to their potential role as indicators of climate change. However, the understanding of TFL dynamics is challenged by the complex interactions of factors that control TFLs. The review aims to provide an overview over the trends in the elevational dynamics of TFLs in Norway since the beginning of the 20th century, to identify main challenges to explain temporal and spatial patterns in TFL dynamics, and to identify important domains for future research. Method A systematic search was performed using international and Norwegian search engines for peer-reviewed articles, scientific reports, and MA and PhD theses concerning TFL changes. Results Most articles indicate TFL rise, but with high variability. Single factors that have an impact on TFL dynamics are well understood, but knowledge gaps exist with regard to interactions and feedbacks, especially those leading to distributional time lags. Extracting the most relevant factors for TFL changes, especially with regard to climate versus land-use changes, requires more research. Conclusions Existing data on TFL dynamics provide a broad overview of past and current changes, but estimations of reliable TFL changes for Norway as a whole is impossible. The main challenges in future empirically-based predictions of TFLs are to understand causes of time lags, separate effects of contemporary processes, and make progress on the impacts of feedback and interactions. Remapping needs to be continued, but combined with both the establishment of representative TFL monitoring sites and field experiments.
Abstract
The Norwegian area frame survey of land cover and outfield land resources (AR18X18), completed in 2014, provided unbiased statistics of land cover in Norway. The article reports the new statistics, discusses implications of the data set, and provides potential value in terms of research, management, and monitoring. A gridded sampling design for 1081 primary statistical units of 0.9 km2 at 18 km intervals was implemented in the survey. The plots were mapped in situ, aided by aerial photos, and all areas were coded following a vegetation type system. The results provide new insights into the cover and distribution of vegetation and land cover types. The statistic for mire and wetlands, which previously covered 5.8%, has since been corrected to 8.9%. The survey results can be used for environmental and agricultural management, and the data can be stratified for regional analyses. The survey data can also serve as training data for remote sensing and distribution modelling. Finally, the survey data can be used to calibrate vegetation perturbations in climate change research that focuses on atmospheric–vegetation feedback. The survey documented novel land cover statistics and revealed that the national cover of wetlands had previously been underestimated.
Abstract
During recent decades, forests have expanded into new areas throughout the whole of Norway. The processes explained as causing the forest expansion have focused mainly on climate or land use changes. To enable a spatially explicit separation of the effects following these two main drivers behind forest expansion, the authors set out to model the potential for natural forest regeneration following land use abandonment, given the present climatic conditions. The present forest distribution, a number of high-resolution land cover maps, and GIS methods were used to model the potential for natural forest regeneration. Furthermore, the results were tested with independent local models, explanatory variables and predictive modelling. The modelling results show that land use abandonment, in a long-term perspective, has the climatic and edaphic potential to cause natural forest regeneration of 48,800 km2, or 15.9% of mainland Norway. The future natural forest regeneration following land use change or abandonment can now be spatially separated from the effects of climate changes. The different independent model tests support the main findings, but small fractions of the modelled potential natural forest regeneration will probably be caused by other processes than land use abandonment.
Authors
Paul Ragnar Berg Lawrence Richard Kirkendall Kyrre Linné Kausrud Martin Malmstrøm Anders Bryn Kjetil Hindar Johanna Järnegren Anders Nielsen Erlend Birkeland Nilsen Brett Kevin Sandercock Eva Bonsak Thorstad Gaute VelleAbstract
Import of leeches for medical use and hobby keeping poses a low risk of negative effects on Norwegian biodiversity. This is the key message in a risk assessment of two species of blood-sucking leeches conducted by VKM for the Norwegian Environment Agency. Background The two species of leeches (Hirudo medicinalis and H. verbana) have in recent years become more commonly used in Western medicine for various procedures where maintaining good blood flow is important. Hirudo medicinalis is considered native to Norway and is found in scattered populations in southern Norway. There is uncertainty about the genetic impact on these populations if imported leeches were to be released into the wild. Hirudo verbana is not registered in Norway but may have been imported as H. medicinalis in the past. Both species are listed under Appendix I, List B of the Norwegian CITES regulations. Methods VKM reviewed scientific literature to uncover potential negative effects in light of the leeches’ ecology under Norwegian conditions. VKM also investigated how the trade in live leeches is conducted, where they originate from, and outlined possible risk-reducing measures. VKM assessed four factors of potential relevance for negative impacts on biodiversity and conducted risk assessments for each: Hybridisation or other negative genetic impacts on local populations Competition with other leech species Parasitism or predation on amphibian populations Transmission of diseases Additionally, VKM assessed the extent of such imports and the likelihood of imported leeches ending up in Norwegian nature. Results VKM concluded that it is moderately likely that H. medicinalis will genetically affect Norwegian populations, but this will have minimal negative effects. Hybridisation between H. verbana and H. medicinalis is considered unlikely and would have little effect if it occurs. ”The leeches already present in Norway mainly originate from leeches imported from Europe in the 1800s. The introduction of new genes from the same areas now will therefore have minimal impact. The risk is therefore low,” says Lawrence Kirkendall, the scientific leader of the work. For parasitism or predation, amphibians are the main species that could theoretically be negatively affected by the leeches. VKM concludes that such negative effects are very unlikely and would have little or minimal impact. This implies low risk. Regarding competition and disease transmission, VKM assesses that these factors have little or minimal effect on biodiversity and are very unlikely. "We assess that the effects on biodiversity in Norway, if imported leeches were to end up in an environment where they thrive, are very small. At the same time, it is very unlikely that leeches used for medical procedures will end up in nature. The overall assessment is therefore that both species are associated with low risk of negative impact on biodiversity," says Kirkendall. The risk assessment is approved by the VKM Panel for Biodiversity.
Authors
Adam Eindride Naas Lasse Torben Keetz Rune Halvorsen Peter Horvath Ida Marielle Mienna Trond Simensen Anders BrynAbstract
There is an increasing need for ecosystem-level distribution models (EDMs) and a better understanding of which factors affect their quality. We investigated how the performance and transferability of EDMs are influenced by 1) the choice of predictors and 2) model complexity. We modelled the distribution of 15 pre-classified ecosystem types in Norway using 252 predictors gridded to 100 × 100 m resolution. The ecosystem types are major types in the ‘Nature in Norway' system mainly defined by rule-based criteria such as whether soil or specific functional groups (e.g. trees) are present. The predictors were categorised into four groups, of which three represented proxies for natural, anthropogenic, or terrain processes (‘ecological predictors') and one represented spectral and structural characteristics of the surface observable from above (‘surface predictors'). Models were generated for five levels of model complexity. Model performance and transferability were evaluated with data collected independently of the training data. We found that 1) models trained with surface predictors only performed considerably better and were more transferable than models trained with ecological predictors, and 2) model performance increased with model complexity, levelling off from approximately 10 parameters and reaching a peak at approximately 20 parameters, while model transferability decreased with model complexity. Our findings suggest that surface predictors enhance EDM performance and transferability, most likely because they represent discernible surface characteristics of the ecosystem types. A poor match between the rule-based criteria that define the ecosystem types and the ecological predictors, which represent ecological processes, is a plausible explanation for why surface predictors better predict the distribution of ecosystem types. Our results indicate that, in most cases, the same models are not well suited for contrasting purposes, such as predicting where ecosystems are and explaining why they are there.
Authors
Diress Tsegaye Alemu Christian Pedersen Svein Olav Krøgli Anders Bryn Kerstin Potthoff Wenche DramstadAbstract
Mountain areas in Norway provide important resources for livestock grazing. These resources are crucial for agricultural production in a country with limited agricultural land and a climate and topography that restrict production of feed and food. A key contributor in the harvest of these resources has been mountain summer farming and outfield grazing in general. However, the use of mountainous grazing resources has been declining strongly for several decades with the regrowth of formerly open areas as a consequence. In contrast, recreational use, number of holiday cabins and associated infrastructure is rapidly increasing. Conflicts between recreational and agriculture use have received increasing attention in different media. We investigated the spatial patterns of cabin development and key grazing areas in Norwegian mountain areas, analysing data on livestock, cabins, and associated infrastructure. We found a large number of cabins and associated infrastructure within high-quality grazing areas indicating that the quality of grazing has not been adequately considered in the location of new cabins. Taking into consideration that cabin development seems not to decrease, the reduced availability of grazing resources may result in an increasing level of conflict and also impact food security in the long run.