Publications
NIBIOs employees contribute to several hundred scientific articles and research reports every year. You can browse or search in our collection which contains references and links to these publications as well as other research and dissemination activities. The collection is continously updated with new and historical material.
2021
Authors
Christophe Pelabon Elena Albertsen Arnaud Le Rouzic Cyril Firmat Geir Hysing Bolstad W. Scott Armbruster Thomas Fredrik HansenAbstract
Although artificial-selection experiments seem well suited to testing our ability to predict evolution, the correspondence between predicted and observed responses is often ambiguous due to the lack of uncertainty estimates. We present equations for assessing prediction error in direct and indirect responses to selection that integrate uncertainty in genetic parameters used for prediction and sampling effects during selection. Using these, we analyzed a selection experiment on floral traits replicated in two taxa of the Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) species complex for which G-matrices were obtained from a diallel breeding design. After four episodes of bidirectional selection, direct and indirect responses remained within wide prediction intervals, but appeared different from the predictions. Combined analyses with structural-equation models confirmed that responses were asymmetrical and lower than predicted in both species. We show that genetic drift is likely to be a dominant source of uncertainty in typically-dimensioned selection experiments in plants and a major obstacle to predicting short-term evolutionary trajectories.
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Atle Wehn HegnesAbstract
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Marit JørgensenAbstract
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© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is the postprint version of the article published in Journal of Rural Studies. It will be available 18.08.2023 after an embargo period of 24 months.You can find the published article here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2021.08.018
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Authors
Sara Durán-Soria Delphine M. Pott Frank Will Jennifer Mesa-Marín Mariusz Lewandowski Karolina Celejewska Agnieszka Masny Edward Zurawicz Nikki Jennings Anita Sønsteby Erika Krüger Sonia OsorioAbstract
No abstract has been registered