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Abstract

Future development of bioeconomy is expected to change land use in the Nordic countries in agriculture and forestry. The changes are likely to affect water quality due to changes in nutrient run-off. To explore possible future land-use changes and their environmental impact, stakeholders and experts from four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) were consulted. The methodological framework for the consultation was to identify a set of relevant land-use attributes for agriculture and forestry, e.g. tillage conservation effort, fertiliser use, animal husbandry, biogas production from manure, forestry management options, and implementation of mitigation measures, including protection of sensitive areas. The stakeholders and experts provided their opinions on how these attributes might change in terms of their environmental impacts on water quality given five Nordic bioeconomic scenarios (sustainability, business as usual, self-sufficiency, cities first and maximizing economic growth). A compilation methodology was developed to allow comparing and merging the stakeholder and expert opinions for each attribute and scenario. The compiled opinions for agriculture and forestry suggest that the business-as-usual scenario may slightly decrease the current environmental impact for most attributes due to new technologies, but that the sustainability scenario would be the only option to achieve a clear environmental improvement. In contrast, for the self-sufficiency scenario, as well as the maximum growth scenario, a deterioration of the environment and water quality was expected for most of the attributes. The results from the stakeholder consultations are used as inputs to models for estimating the impact of the land-use attributes and scenarios on nutrient run-off from catchments in the Nordic countries (as reported in other papers in this special issue). Furthermore, these results will facilitate policy level discussions concerning how to facilitate the shift to bioeconomy with increasing biomass exploitation without deteriorating water quality and ecological status in Nordic rivers and lakes.

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Abstract

This paper synthesizes a five-year project (BIOWATER) that assessed the effects of a developing bioeconomy on Nordic freshwaters. We used a catchment perspective and combined several approaches: comparative analyses of long-term data sets from well-monitored catchments (agricultural, with forestry, and near pristine) across Fennoscandia, catchment biogeochemical modelling and ecosystem services assessment for integration. Various mitigation measures were also studied. Benchmark Shared Socio-economic Pathways were downscaled and articulated in dialogue with national stakeholder representatives leading to five Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs) describing plausible but different trajectories of societal development towards 2050.These were then used for catchment modelling and ecosystem service assessment. Key findings from the work synthesized here are: (a) The monitoring results from 69 catchments demonstrate that agricultural lands exported an order of magnitude more nutrients than natural catchments (medians 44 vs 4 kg P km−2 y-1 and 1450 vs 139 kg N km−2 y-1) whilst forests were intermediate (7 kg P km−2 y-1 and 200 kg N km−2 y-1). (b) Our contrasting scenarios led to substantial differences in land use patterns, which affected river flow as well as nutrient loads in two of the four modelled catchments (Danish Odense Å and Norwegian Skuterud), but not in two others (Swedish catchment C6 and Finnish Simojoki). (c) Strongly contrasting scenarios (NBP1 maximizing resource circularity versus NBP5 maximizing short-term profit) were found to lead to similar monetary estimates of total societal benefits, though for different underlying reasons – a pattern similar across the six studied Nordic catchments. (d) The ecological status of small to medium sized rivers in agricultural landscapes benefitted greatly from an increase in riparian forest cover from 10 % to 60 %. Riparian buffer strips, constructed wetlands, rewetting of ditched peatlands, and similar nature-based solutions optimize natural biogeochemical processes and thus can help in mitigating negative impacts of intensified biomass removal on water quality.

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Abstract

The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive is of paramount importance for water management. According to the legal text, coordination with other directives like the Floods Directive is imperative and motivated by potential synergy effects. In this paper, the degree to which such coordination is achieved is evaluated for five Nordic and Baltic countries. The evaluation is based on legal documents, management plans, as well as on organizational structure in the five countries. The results show that the coordination between the Water Framework Directive and the Floods Directive (or flood management for Norway's case), have been successful for Estonia and Lithuania, whereas Norway, Finland, and especially Sweden need to improve more.

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Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus and CO2 emissions for a farm in northwest Iran were analyzed to provide data support for decision-makers formulating national strategies in response to climate change. In the analysis, input–output energy in the production of seven crop species (alfalfa, barley, silage corn, potato, rapeseed, sugar beet, and wheat) was determined using six indicators, water, and energy consumption, mass productivity, and economic productivity. WEF Nexus index (WEFNI), calculated based on these indicators, showed the highest (best) value for silage corn and the lowest for potato. Nitrogen fertilizer and diesel fuel with an average of 36.8% and 30.6% of total input energy were the greatest contributors to energy demand. Because of the direct relationship between energy consumption and CO2 emissions, potato cropping, with the highest energy consumption, had the highest CO2 emissions with a value of 5166 kg CO2eq ha−1. A comparison of energy inputs and CO2 emissions revealed a direct relationship between input energy and global warming potential. A 1 MJ increase in input energy increased CO2 emissions by 0.047, 0.049, 0.047, 0.054, 0.046, 0.046, and 0.047 kg ha−1 for alfalfa, barley, silage corn, potato, rapeseed, sugar beet, and wheat, respectively. Optimization assessments to identify the optimal cultivation pattern, with emphasis on maximized WEFNI and minimized CO2 emissions, showed that barley, rapeseed, silage corn, and wheat performed best under the conditions studied.

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Abstract

Cultivated peatlands under drainage practices contribute significant carbon losses from agricultural sector in the Nordic countries. In this research, we developed the BASGRA-BGC model coupled with hydrological, soil carbon decomposition and methane modules to simulate the dynamic of water table level (WTL), carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions for cultivated peatlands. The field measurements from four experimental sites in Finland, Denmark and Norway were used to validate the predictive skills of this novel model under different WTL management practices, climatic conditions and soil properties. Compared with daily observations, the model performed well in terms of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error; 0.06–0.11 m, 1.22–2.43 gC/m2/day, and 0.002–0.330 kgC/ha/day for WTL, CO2 and CH4, respectively), NRMSE (Normalized Root Mean Square Error; 10.3–18.3%, 13.0–18.6%, 15.3–21.9%) and Pearson's r (Pearson correlation coefficient; 0.60–0.91, 0.76–0.88, 0.33–0.80). The daily/seasonal variabilities were therefore captured and the aggregated results corresponded well with annual estimations. We further provided an example on the model's potential use in improving the WTL management to mitigate CO2 and CH4 emissions while maintaining grass production. At all study sites, the simulated WTLs and carbon decomposition rates showed a significant negative correlation. Therefore, controlling WTL could effectively reduce carbon losses. However, given the highly diverse carbon decomposition rates within individual WTLs, adding indi-cators (e.g. soil moisture and peat quality) would improve our capacity to assess the effectiveness of specificmitigation practices such as WTL control and rewetting.

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Abstract

Nordic water bodies face multiple stressors due to human activities, generating diffuse loading and climate change. The ‘green shift’ towards a bio-based economy poses new demands and increased pressure on the environment. Bioeconomy-related pressures consist primarily of more intensive land management to maximise production of biomass. These activities can add considerable nutrient and sediment loads to receiving waters, posing a threat to ecosystem services and good ecological status of surface waters. The potential threats of climate change and the ‘green shift’ highlight the need for improved understanding of catchment-scale water and element fluxes. Here, we assess possible bioeconomy-induced pressures on Nordic catchments and associated impacts on water quality. We suggest measures to protect water quality under the ‘green shift’ and propose ‘road maps’ towards sustainable catchment management. We also identify knowledge gaps and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring data and good models to evaluate changes in water quality, improve understanding of bioeconomy-related impacts, support mitigation measures and maintain ecosystem services.

Abstract

Cultivated organic soils account for ~7% of Norway’s agricultural land area, and they are estimated to be a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project ‘Climate smart management practices on Norwegian organic soils’ (MYR), commissioned by the Research Council of Norway (decision no. 281109), aims to evaluate GHG (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) emissions and impacts on biomass productivity from three land use types (cultivated, abandoned and restored) on organic soils. At the cultivated sites, impacts of drainage depth and management intensity will be measured. We established experimental sites in Norway covering a broad range of climate and management regimes, which will produce observational data in high spatiotemporal resolution during 2019-2022. Using state-of-the-art modelling techniques, MYR aims to predict the potential GHG mitigation under different scenarios (e.g. different water table depth, management practices and climate pattern). Four models (BASGRA, DNDC, Coup and ECOSSE) will be further developed according to the physical/chemical properties of peat soil and then used independently in simulating biogeochemical processes and biomass dynamics in the different land uses. Robust parameterization schemes for each model to improve the predictive accuracy will be derived from a new dataset collected from multiple experimental sites in the Nordic region. Thereafter, the models will be used in the regional simulation to present the spatial heterogeneity in large scale. Eventually, a multi-model ensemble prediction will be carried out to provide scenario analyses by 2030 and 2050. By integrating experimental results and modelling, the project aims at generating useful information for recommendations on environment-friendly use of Norwegian peatlands.

Abstract

Cultivated organic soils account for ∼7% of Norway’s agricultural land area, and they are estimated to be a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project ‘Climate smart management practices on Norwegian organic soils’ (MYR), commissioned by the Research Council of Norway (decision no. 281109), aims to evaluate GHG (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) emissions and impacts on biomass productivity from three land use types (cultivated, abandoned and restored) on organic soils. At the cultivated sites, impacts of drainage depth and management intensity will be measured. We established experimental sites in Norway covering a broad range of climate and management regimes, which will produce observational data in high spatiotemporal resolution during 2019-2021. Using state-of-the-art modelling techniques, MYR aims to predict the potential GHG mitigation under different scenarios. Four models (BASGRA, DNDC, Coup and ECOSSE) will be further developed according to the soil properties, and then used independently in simulating biogeochemical processes and biomass dynamics in the different land uses. Robust parameterization schemes for each model will be based in the observational data from the project for both soil and crop combinations. Eventually, a multi-model ensemble prediction will be carried out to provide scenario analyses by 2030 and 2050. By integrating experimental results and modelling, the project aims at generating useful information for recommendations on environment-friendly use of Norwegian peatlands.

Abstract

Cultivated organic soils (7-8% of Norway’s agricultural land area) are economically important sources for forage production in some regions in Norway, but they are also ‘hot spots’ for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project ‘Climate smart management practices on Norwegian organic soils’ (MYR; funded by the Research Council of Norway, decision no. 281109) will evaluate how water table management and the intensity of other management practices (i.e. tillage and fertilization intensity) affects both GHG emissions and forage’s quality & production. The overall aim of MYR is to generate useful information for recommendations on climate-friendly management of Norwegian peatlands for both policy makers and farmers. For this project, we established two experimental sites on Norwegian peatlands for grass cultivation, of which one in Northern (subarctic, continental climate) and another in Southern (temperate, coastal climate) Norway. Both sites have a water table level (WTL) gradient ranging from low to high. In order to explore the effects of management practices, controlled trials with different fertilization strategies and tillage intensity will be conducted at these sites with WTL gradients considered. Meanwhile, GHG emissions (including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), crop-related observations (e.g. phenology, production), and hydrological conditions (e.g. soil moisture, WTL dynamics) will be monitored with high spatiotemporal resolution along the WTL gradients during 2019-2021. Besides, MYR aims at predicting potential GHG mitigation under different scenarios by using state-of-the-art modelling techniques. Four models (BASGRA, Coup, DNDC and ECOSSE), with strengths in predicting grass growth, hydrological processes, soil nitrification-denitrification and carbon decomposition, respectively, will be further developed according to the soil properties. Then these models will be used independently to simulate biogeochemical and agroecological processes in our experimental fields. Robust parameterization schemes will be based on the observational data for both soil and crop combinations. Eventually, a multi-model ensemble prediction will be carried out to provide scenario analyses by 2030 and 2050. We will couple these process-based models with optimization algorithm to explore the potential reduction in GHG emissions with consideration of production sustenance, and upscale our assessment to regional level.

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Abstract

Management of peat soils is regionally important as they cover large land areas and have important but conflicting ecosystems services. A recent management trend for drained peatlands is the control of greenhouse gases (GHG) by changes in agricultural practices, peatland restoration or paludiculture. Due to complex antagonistic controls of moisture, water table management can be difficult to use as a method for controlling GHG emissions. Past studies show that there is no obvious relationship between GHG emission rates and crop type, tillage intensity or fertilization rates. For drained peat soils, the best use options can vary from rewetting with reduced emission to efficient short term use to maximize the profit per amount of greenhouse gas emitted. The GHG accounting should consider the entire life cycle of the peatland and the socio-economic benefits peatlands provide locally. Cultivating energy crops is a viable option especially for wet peat soils with poor drainage, but harvesting remains a challenge due to tractability of wet soils. Paludiculture in lowland floodplains can be a tool to mitigate regional flooding allowing water to be stored on these lands without much harm to crops. This can also increase regional biodiversity providing important habitats for birds and moisture tolerant plant species. However, on many peatlands rewetting is not possible due to their position in the landscape and the associated difficulty to maintain a high stable water table. While the goal of rewetting often is to encourage the return of peat forming plants and the ecosystem services they provide such as carbon sequestration, it is not well known if these plants will grow on peat soils that have been altered by the process of drainage and management. Therefore, it is important to consider peat quality and hydrology when choosing management options. Mapping of sites is recommended as a management tool to guide actions. The environmental status and socio-economic importance of the sites should be assessed both for continued cultivation but also for other ecosystem services such as restoration and hydrological functions (flood control). Farmers need advice, tools and training to find the best after-use option. Biofuels might provide a cost-efficient after use option for some sites. Peat extraction followed by rewetting might provide a sustainable option as rewetting is often easier if the peat is removed, starting the peat accumulation from scratch. Also this provides a way to finance the after-use. As impacts of land use are uncertain, new policies should consider multiple benefits and decisions should be based on scientific evidence and field scale observations. The need to further understand the key processes and long term effects of field scale land use manipulations is evident. The recommended actions for peatlands should be based on local condition and socio-economic needs to outline intermediate and long term plans.

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Abstract

Peatland drainage results in several environmental impacts such as release of greenhouse gas to the atmosphere and leaching of nutrients to watercourses. These hazardous environmental effects can partly be controlled with soil management, and different drainage and remediation practices. Grading is a new method developed for soils with low conductivity suffering from poor drainage, water logging and ice. The soil surface is graded towards the ditch to increase surface runoff and drainage. The present study compares environmental effects of peatland grading compared to traditional intense pipe drainage. Detailed measurements of hydrology, climate, leaching and gas emissions were carried out at adjacent drainage areas with grass cultivation. Additional measurements were made at plots that were abandoned, cultivated with perennial crops, and remained as pristine peatlands. The results show that the leaching of nutrients is highest from pipe drainage. Climate gas emission was considerably higher at all managed sites than from the reference pristine site. Drainage, soil hydrology and soil nutrient status seemed to control gas emissions. The gas emissions were higher than assumed for Norwegian cold conditions. The results confirm observations made on peat soils in other climatic regions. The highest emissions of CO2 was observed when the soil temperature was high and groundwater table low. The N2O emission showed a large variation with no clear pattern. However, at some locations it peaked after a dry period when NO3-N was leached. More CH4 was emitted from the intensively drained site than the graded site, but more CO2 was emitted from the graded site. The difference in leaching and emission properties is partly due to differences in near surface hydrology. At grade sites, a faster runoff response to rainfall occur probably due to shallow throughfall or overland flow which provides better drainage. Also, the graded site was prepared recently, and this can have exposed fresh peat for decay. Therefore the drainage history must be well known in peatland studies as peat change in time due to drainage and cultivation. Abandoned peat field continue to leach greenhouse gases in a same way as cultivated sites.