Thomas Solvin
Research Scientist
Authors
Debojyoti Chakraborty Albert Ciceu Dalibor Ballian Marta Benito Garzón Andreas Bolte Gregor Bozic Rafael Buchacher Jaroslav Čepl Eva Cremer Alexis Ducousso Julian Gaviria Jan Peter George André Hardtke Mladen Ivankovic Marcin Klisz Jan Kowalczyk Antoine Kremer Milan Lstibůrek Roman Longauer Georgeta Mihai László Nagy Krasimira Petkova Emil Popov Randolf Schirmer Tore Skrøppa Thomas Solvin Arne Steffenrem Jan Stejskal Srdjan Stojnic Katharina Volmer Silvio SchuelerAbstract
Climate change threatens the role of European forests as a long-term carbon sink. Assisted migration aims to increase the resilience of forest tree populations to climate change, using species-specific climatic limits and local adaptations through transferring seed provenances. We modelled assisted migration scenarios for seven main European tree species and analysed the effects of species and seed provenance selection, accounting for environmental and genetic variations, on the annual above-ground carbon sink of regrowing juvenile forests. To increase forest resilience, coniferous trees need to be replaced by deciduous species over large parts of their distribution. If local seed provenances are used, this would result in a decrease of the current carbon sink (40 TgC yr−1) by 34–41% by 2061–2080. However, if seed provenances adapted to future climates are used, current sinks could be maintained or even increased to 48–60 TgC yr−1.
Abstract
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Abstract
Female flowering and cone production took place in three Norway spruce progeny tests at ages 17 and 20 years, each planted with full-sib families from a half diallel. The number of cones on individual trees were scored in five classes. More than 50 % of the trees produced cones, and a considerable variation was found among families for the ability to produce cones (precocity) and for the number of clones scored in classes (fruitfulness). Both traits were strongly related to tree heights and diameters at the individual and at the family level. In general, tall trees produced the highest number of cones. However, some families produced many cones even if their average heights were low. In two of the half diallels, estimates of GCA variance components for the number of cones produced had twice the value of the SCA component, indicating additive genetic inheritance of cone production. Heritability estimates of cone scores were 0.10, 0.17 and 0.23, and the genetic correlations between cone production and tree heights were 0.40, 0.50 and 0.35 in the three half-diallels, respectively.
