To document

Abstract

Coconut is recognized for its popularity in contributing to food and nutritional security. It generates income and helps to improve rural livelihood. However, these benefits are constrained by lethal yellowing disease (LYD). A clear understanding of climate suitable areas for disease invasion is essential for implementing quarantine measures. Therefore, we used a machine learning algorithm based on maximum entropy to model and map habitat suitability of LYD and coconut under current and future climate change scenarios using three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) (1.26, 3.70 and 5.85) for three time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100). Outside its current range, the model projected habitat suitability of LYD in Australia, Asia and South America. The distribution of coconut exceeded that of LYD. The area under the curve value of 0.98 was recorded for LYD, whereas 0.87 was obtained for the coconut model. The predictor variables that most influenced LYD projections were minimum temperature of the coldest month (88.4%) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (7.3%), whereas minimum temperature of the coldest month (85.9%) and temperature seasonality (8.7%) contributed most to the coconut model. Our study highlights potential climate suitable areas of LYD and coconut, and provides useful information for increasing quarantine measures and developing resistant or tolerant coconut varieties against the disease. Also, our study establishes an approach to model the climatic suitability for surveillance and monitoring of the disease, especially in areas that the disease has not been reported.

To document

Abstract

Understanding the detailed timing of crop phenology and their variability enhances grain yield and quality by providing precise scheduling of irrigation, fertilization, and crop protection mechanisms. Advances in information and communication technology (ICT) provide a unique opportunity to develop agriculture-related tools that enhance wall-to-wall upscaling of data outputs from point-location data to wide-area spatial scales. Because of the heterogeneity of the worldwide agro-ecological zones where crops are cultivated, it is unproductive to perform plant phenology research without providing means to upscale results to landscape-level while safeguarding field-scale relevance. This paper presents an advanced, reproducible, and open-source software for plant phenology prediction and mapping (PPMaP) that inputs data obtained from multi-location field experiments to derive models for any crop variety. This information can then be applied consecutively at a localized grid within a spatial framework to produce plant phenology predictions at the landscape level. This software runs on the ‘Windows’ platform and supports the development of process-oriented and temperature-driven plant phenology models by intuitively and interactively leading the user through a step-by-step progression to the production of spatial maps for any region of interest in sub-Saharan Africa. Maize (Zea mays L.) was used to demonstrate the robustness, versatility, and high computing efficiency of the resulting modeling outputs of the PPMaP. The framework was implemented in R, providing a flexible and easy-to-use GUI interface. Since this allows for appropriate scaling to the larger spatial domain, the software can effectively be used to determine the spatially explicit length of growing period (LGP) of any variety.