Can we achieve a sustainable bioeconomy?

The green shift is the transition from an economy based on fossil energy to one based on renewable resources – referred to as bioeconomy. In such a world, we will increasingly use biomass from agriculture for energy, food, feed, and materials, which could mean significant changes in land use.

In BIOWATER, researchers alongside various stakeholders have examined how five scenarios in a future with bioeconomy could affect land use. Based on catchments in four Nordic countries, the researchers modelled how the scenarios could result in the loss of soil and nutrients to water. The scenarios were also used in socio-economic analyses, considering that catchments provide a range of ecosystem services to society, including drinking water supply and recreational opportunities.

The results showed that the introduction of a bioeconomy with increased biomass extraction could lead to nutrient loss to watercourses and therefore an increased risk of harmful algal blooms.

"Of the five scenarios, the sustainable one is best for achieving good waterbody conditions. This scenario is based on investing everything in a sustainable future, with environmentally friendly farming practices and the implementation of all possible environmental measures to prevent runoff into water," says project leader Dr Eva Skarbøvik.

The researchers also modelled the effect of climate change up to the year 2050. They found that changes in land use are likely to have a greater impact on water quality in watercourses over the next 20-30 years than climate change.

"In other words, it is urgent to implement local environmental measures in agriculture to reduce nutrient loss to our watercourses," says Dr Skarbøvik.