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We investigated whether diversification and/or structural change would improve Norwegian agriculture. Using a flexible technology approach to account for different technologies, we assessed economies of scope and scale of dairy and cropping farms, including regional differences. We fitted translog cost functions to farm-level panel data for the period 1991–2014. We found both economies of scope and scale on the farms. Dairy farms have an economic incentive to integrate dairying with cropping in all regions of Norway, and vice versa. Thus, policy makers should eschew interventions that inhibit diversification or structural change and that increase the costs of food production.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the economic performance of Norwegian crop farms using a stochastic frontier analysis. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis was based on a translog cost function and unbalanced farm-level panel data for 1991–2013 from 455 Norwegian farms specialized in crop production in eastern and central regions of Norway. Findings – The results of the analysis show that the mean efficiency was about 78–81 percent. Farm management practices and socioeconomic factors were shown to significantly affect the economic performance of Norwegian crop farms. Research limitations/implications – Farmers are getting different types of support from the government and the study does not account for the different effects of different kinds of subsidy on cost efficiency. Different subsidies might have different effects on farm performance. To get more informative and useful results, it would be necessary to repeat the analysis with less aggregated data on subsidy payments. Practical implications – One implication for farmers (and their advisers) is that many of them are less efficient than the estimated benchmark (best performing farms). Thus, those lagging behind the best performing farms need to look at the way they are operating and to seek out ways to save costs or increase crop production. Perhaps there are things for lagging farmers to learn from their more productive farming neighbors. For instance, those farmers not practicing crop rotation might be well advised to try that practice. Social implications – For both taxpayers and consumers, one implication is that the contributions they pay that go to subsidize farmers appear to bring some benefits in terms of more efficient production that, in turn, increase the supply of some foods so possibly making food prices more affordable. Originality/value – Unlike previous performance studies in the literature, the authors estimated farm-level economic performance accounting for the contribution of both an important farm management practice and selected socioeconomic factors. Good farm management practices, captured through crop rotation, land tenure, government support and off-farm activities were found to have made a positive and statistically significant contribution to reducing the cost of production on crop-producing farms in the Central and Eastern regions of Norway.

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This paper addresses the endogeneity of inputs and output (which is mostly ignored in the stochastic frontier (SF) literature) in the SF panel data model under the behavioural assumption that firms maximize returns to the outlay. We consider a four component SF panel data model in which the four components are: firms' latent heterogeneity, persistent inefficiency, transient inefficiency and random shocks. Second, we include determinants in transient inefficiency. Finally, to avoid the impact of distributional assumptions in estimating the technology parameters, we apply a multi-step estimation strategy to an unbalanced panel dataset from Norwegian crop-producing farms observed from 1993 to 2014. Distributional assumptions are made in second and third steps to predict both persistent and transient inefficiency, and their marginal effects. Keywords Efficiency; Endogeneity; Returns to the outlay; Panel data

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This paper compares technical efficiencies (TEs) and technological gap ratios (TGRs) for dairy farms in regions of Norway, accounting for differences in working environments. We used the state-of-the-art stochastic meta-frontier approach to estimate TEs and TGRs to account for regional heterogeneity, and the ‘true’ random-effect model to account for farm effects. The dataset used was farm-level balanced panel data for 24 years (1992–2014), with 5442 observations from 731 dairy farms. The results of the analysis provide empirical evidence of small regional differences in TEs, TGRs, and input use. Furthermore, the results may provide support for the more regionally specific agricultural policy, in terms of support schemes and structural regulations.

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In this paper we estimate the short-run, long-run and overall efficiency of Norwegian electricity distribution companies for the period 2000–2013 controlling for both noise and company effects. Short-run inefficiency is the part of inefficiency that is allowed to adjust freely over time for each company, but long-run (persistent) inefficiency remains constant over time, although it is allowed to vary across companies. For robustness check we also consider two additional models in which either company effects are not controlled or these are treated as inefficiency. The production technology is represented by a translog input distance function in all three models. We find that technical change and returns to scale are quite robust across the models. However, the efficiency scores across the three models we consider are not correlated strongly. We conclude that the regulators and practitioners should take extra caution in using the proper model in practice, especially when the efficiency measures are used to reward/punish companies through incentives for better performance.

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Empirical studies have often shown wide differences in productivity among firms. Although several studies have sought to identify factors causing such differences, only a few studies have examined the effects of risk and risk aversion on productivity. In this study, using Norwegian dairy farming data for 2009, we examined the effects of different aspects of risk on productivity. We used a range of variables to construct indices of risk taking, risk perception and risk management. These indices were then included as arguments in an input distance function which represents the production technology. Our results show that these risk indices did affect productivity. Regional differences in productivity, though small, were also found to exist, suggesting that unobserved edaphic factors that differ between regions also affected productivity.

Sammendrag

Protected Landscapes (PLs) are increasingly used in Norway to conserve cultural (human modified) landscapes. In many cases the maintenance of agricultural activities in PLs is required to preserve landscape character. Whilst research exists on land conservation policies in general, the particular effects of PL on management and adjustment of the farms involved have not received attention in the literature. We present results from a questionnaire sent to owners of agricultural land within PLs in Norway. Whilst landowners were divided upon the effects of PLs on farm management, the economic situation of the farm was little affected. Furthermore, changes in farm management after the establishment of a PL did not seem to have been driven by the establishment of the PLs per se. Most importantly, farm management changes were related to potential options to develop the farm and its land. A statistical model showed that PL-farms did not differ significantly from farms outside PL in the development of their land use or animal husbandry. Our findings thus indicate that the establishment of PL played a minor role as a driving force of changes in farm management and farm income.

Sammendrag

Ved årsskiftet 2008-09 var 5,1 % av jordbruksarealet økologisk eller under omlegging. Med et offentlig mål om 15 % økologisk produksjon og forbruk i 2015 trengs det mange flere økobønder. Interessen for omlegging er lavere enn ønskelig, og veksten i økoareal bremses også av at mange økobønder slutter. Hvert år siden 2002 har ca 180 bønder meldt seg ut av kontrollordningen for økologisk produksjon, Debio, og trenden ser ikke ut til å avta. Så langt i 2009 har det vært 104 innmeldinger og 80 utmeldinger. Per 01.05.2009 var 2726 gårdsbruk tilknyttet Debio-ordningen. Bioforsk Økologisk og Norsk institutt for landbruksøkonomisk forskning (NILF) har nettopp avsluttet et forskningsprosjekt (2007-08) for å kartlegge og analysere årsakene til utmelding. I denne artikkelen oppsummerer vi de viktigste resultatene. Når vi vet hvorfor bønder går lei av ett eller flere forhold ved økologisk drift blir det lettere å planlegge tiltak som kan motivere til videre innsats, og tiltak som kan rekruttere nye økobønder.

Sammendrag

Siden 2002 har mellom 150 og 200 produsenter årlig meldt seg ut av Debio. Den viktigste årsaken til utmelding var for mye byråkrati med kontroll og sertifisering. For dem som driver økologisk er det viktigste problemet uforutsigbare politiske rammevilkår. Økonomiske forhold var viktige årsaker eller problemer for alle.

Sammendrag

Siden 2002 har mellom 150 og 200 produsenter årlig meldt seg ut av Debio. Den viktigste årsaken til utmelding var for mye byråkrati med kontroll og sertifisering. For dem som driver økologisk er det viktigste problemet uforutsigbare politiske rammevilkår. Økonomiske forhold var viktige årsaker eller problemer for alle.

Sammendrag

Siden 2002 har mellom 150 og 200 produsenter årlig meldt seg ut av Debio. Den viktigste årsaken var for mye byråkrati med kontroll og sertifisering. De som fortsetter med økologisk drift nevner uforutsigbare politiske rammevilkår som viktig utfordring. Økonomiske forhold var viktige årsaker eller problemer for begge gruppene.

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The objective of tills article wits to explore how marginalization of revenues front timber sales relative to income from agriculture and employment affects profit efficiency (the ratio of actual profit to maximum obtainable profit). We also sought to identify and measure the effects of other relevant inefficiency factors. A translog profit. frontier function with all inefficiency module was estimated using a panel of 2.265 observations of 385 active Norwegian forest. owners for 1991-2004. We found that profit efficiency decreases as the revenues from timber sales fall relative to agricultural or wage income. Other factors decreasing the efficiency were logging distance (beyond what can be explained by logging costs), fragmentation of the forest property, and time. Factors increasing profit efficiency were experience (age). information (possession of a management. plan). and geographical location (centrality). Oil the basis of our results we make recommendations oil how forest owners can improve their profit. efficiency. We also suggest further developing and streamlining contract regimens as policy instruments for promoting efficiency. FOR. SCI. 55(6).524-532.

Sammendrag

Siden begrepet økologisk landbruk ble lovbeskyttet gjennom EØS-avtalen i 1994 har antall økologiske gårder i Norge økt fra 561 til 2838 (november 2009). Et problem med begreper er at de ikke alltid gjenspeiler forestillingene våre. Si ordet «økologisk gård», og vi ser for oss frodige kløverenger, frittgående hønseflokker, kuer som vasser i hvit snø i januar og gulrøtter som vokser i kompostgjødslet, feit jord der meitemarken yngler og solsikkene blomstrer i grøftekanten. Det er imidlertid ingen krav om at hele gården skal legges om, så i praksis har en god del av disse gårdene en ganske begrenset økologisk produksjon. Hvert år siden 2002 har 150-200 bønder meldt seg ut av Debio, og dermed bidratt til inntrykket av at økologisk landbruk ikke er liv laga - i hvert fall ikke for bønder. Noen av gårdene som meldte seg ut, kom imidlertid aldri så langt som til å legge om noe som helst. Andre testet kanskje ut økodrift på litt av jorda, og fant ut at omlegging ikke var noe for dem. Andre igjen er ærlige på at de la om for å få kloa i ekstra tilskudd. Over tid kan en slik strategi koste mer enn den smaker. «Øko»-bonden vender tilbake til konvensjonell drift en erfaring rikere, men har bidratt til å gi økologien et dårlig rykte. Tilskuddsryttere er ikke noe man ønsker å bli identifisert med, og for eksempel ensidig økologisk korndyrking i Trøndelag har fått et dårlig ord på seg i denne sammenhengen. Selv med liten innsats og elendige avlinger kan økonomien bli bedre ved økologisk drift, på grunn av det ekstra arealtilskuddet. At noen slutter med økodrift er altså ikke nødvendigvis negativt for økologisk landbruk.

Sammendrag

Utmeldinger begrenser veksten i økologisk produksjon i Norge. Siden 2005 har det vært et offentlig mål å ha 15 % økologisk matproduksjon og forbruk innen 2015 i Norge (LMD, 2009). Antall bønder som legger om er imidlertid lavere enn ønskelig. Siden 2002 har det bare vært en netto økning på 562 primærprodusenter. Mellom 2002 og 2009 var det årlig ca 180 utmeldinger, og denne trenden ser ikke ut til å avta. I starten av 2009 var 2702 produsenter med i Debio-ordningen (Debio, 2009), og inkludert areal i karens var bare 5,1 % av jordbruksarealet økologisk. For å kartlegge årsakene til utmelding har Bioforsk Økologisk og Norsk institutt for landbruksøkonomisk forskning gjennomført et forskningsprosjekt i samarbeid med Danmarks tekniske universitet i årene 2007-08. I denne artikkelen omtaler vi de viktigste resultatene.

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Sammendrag

A sample selection framework that simultaneously takes into account the two-step decision-making of forest owners (first whether or not to harvest, second the level of harvesting) is applied on representative cross-sectional data for forest properties and owners in Norway. Forest management plans, property size, forested area and income from agriculture are found to increase both the propensity to harvest and the harvesting levels. Income from engagement in other outfield-related productions and debt burden increase the propensity to harvest only, while increased age impact negatively on the harvesting decision. Wage income affects both propensities to harvest and harvesting levels negatively. The results suggest that other on-property productions may stimulate harvesting decisions, while off-property income impact harvesting decisions and levels negatively. (C) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Sammendrag

From 2002 to 06, the annual dropout rate of certified organic farmers averaged 7.3%. A project was started in 2007 to explore farmer"s reasons for opting out of certified organic production. Important factors seem to be public regulations including standards for organic farming, agronomy, economy, and farm exit. While many organic farmers with relatively small holdings have opted out, farmers with more land and larger herds tend to convert to organic agriculture. The trend towards larger-scale farms in organic than in conventional agriculture, encouraged by the design of the organic farming payments, challenges the organic principles of diversity and fairness. Means should be considered to ensure that small organic enterprises are also economically viable.

Sammendrag

Med et offentlig mål om at 15 % av matproduksjonen og -forbruket skal være økologisk i 2015, må norsk økologisk landbruk vokse raskt og mye. Da er det problematisk at mange økobønder slutter. Fra 2004 til 2007 meldte 646 bønder seg ut av Debios kontrollordning for økologisk produksjon. Nettotilveksten i samme periode var bare 177 bruk, slik at det i 2007 var 2611 økogårder i Norge. Andel økologisk jordbruksareal økte fra 3,4 til 3,9 %, noe som er for sakte i forhold til målsetningen.

Sammendrag

Over 6 % av alle økobønder meldte seg ut av Debio årlig mellom 2004 og 2007. Mange av de utmeldte er fortsatt bønder. De fleste driver nå konvensjonelt, mens en av fem driver etter økologiske prinsipp, men uten Debio-godkjenning. Hver fjerde økobonde vurderer å melde seg ut av Debio-ordningen innen 5-10 år.

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Quota regulations that prevent output expansion of farms and reallocation of output between farms can cause lower growth in output and productivity. The aim of this study was to explain the output growth rate of Norwegian dairy farms since 1976, and to decompose it into output, input, socioeconomic and technical change components. Instead of using the standard distance function approach for multi-output technologies, we use a growth rate formulation, which automatically removes the farm-specific effects. This formulation also helps to impose non-negativity constraints on marginal products of inputs (input elasticities), which are often violated for many observations, especially when flexible functional forms are used. The farm-level panel data cover three periods: before the quota scheme was introduced (1976-1982); the period with the most output-restricting quota scheme (1983-1996); and the period with a more flexible quota scheme (from 1997 onwards). Results show that the milk quota regulations had a significant constraining effect on output growth, in particular on milk output in the period 1983-1996. Furthermore, the output mix has shifted towards meat production for the average farm. What emerges from this study is that output growth and technical change are negatively influenced by policy aims where productive performance has not been the primary objective, and that there is scope for increased farm growth if the quota regime is liberalised.

Sammendrag

We present the number of farmers entering and opting out of organic farming in recent years; the farmers" reasons for opting out; and some of the farm characteristics. The work is a part of the research project "Reasons for opting out of certified organic production in Norway" (2007-08), funded by the Research Council of Norway and the Agricultural Agreement Fund.

Sammendrag

From 2002 to 2006, the annual dropout rate of certified organic farmers averaged 7.3 %. A project was started in 2007 to explore farmer"s reasons for opting out of certified organic production. Important factors were public regulations including standards for organic farming, agronomy, economy, and farm exit. While many organic farmers with relatively small holdings have opted out, farmers with more land and larger herds tend to convert to organic agriculture. The trend towards larger-scale farms in organic than in conventional agriculture, encouraged by the design of the organic farming payments, challenges the organic principles of diversity and fairness. Means should be considered to ensure that small organic enterprises are also economically viable.

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Sammendrag

Denne rapporten er et sammendrag av resultater fra det strategiske forskningsprogrammet «Risikoeksponering og risikohandtering i matproduksjon – sammenligning av havbruk og jordbruk». Hovedmålene for programmet var å: 1 skaffe økt kunnskap om risiko og om strategier og verktøyer for å møte risiko 2 undersøke om havbruks- og jordbruksbedrifter kan ha gjensidig nytte av å sammenligne risikoeksponering og risikohandtering i de to næringene 3 utvikle teorier og metoder som kan brukes til å handtere risiko i matproduksjon. Målene er søkt nådd ved mange delstudier. Resultatene fra disse delstudiene er publisert og formidlet i artikler og foredrag. I denne rapporten oppsummeres resultatene. Gjennom denne rapporten ønsker vi å gi en forenklet framstilling og oversikt over bidrag fra programmet. Vi har valgt å ikke presentere de individuelle arbeider/artikler hver for seg, men belyse temaer som har vært tatt opp i programmet. Rapporten kan også være en veileder for de som ønsker å se nærmere på enkeltbidrag fra programmet. Kapittel 2–4 dekker hovedmål 1. Kapittel 5 dekker hovedmål 2, mens kapittel 6 dekker hovedmål 3.

Sammendrag

From 2002 to 2007, the number of organic farms in Norway has increased slightly, from 2303 to 2611. The area of organically certified and in conversion farmland has increased much more, from 32,499 to 49,563 ha. Hence, the average size of organic farms has increased considerably, from 19.7 to 25.5 ha agricultural area per farm. This is 20 % above the Norwegian average farm size. As parallel production is permitted, many farms have both organic and conventional production. The average organically managed agricultural area has increased from 11 to 15.4 ha per farm, and the number of milking cows on organic dairy farms from 15 to 20. Many small farms have opted out of certified organic agriculture, whereas farmers with more land are converting to organic. While most of the public financial support in Norwegian agriculture is differentiated in relation to farm size and region, support for organic agriculture is little differentiated. This encourages the conversion of larger operations. However, the diversity of the organic sector is reduced when smaller farms do not convert or opt out, and it should be considered how organic farming can be an interesting option for farmers independent of farm size.

Sammendrag

I Norge er det i enkelte utredninger sett på hvorfor bønder har sluttet med økologisk produksjon (for eksempel Thomlevold et al., 2007). Det er så langt ikke gjort noen vitenskapelige studier på området. Vi vet f.eks. ikke om de som har sluttet har vendt tilbake til konvensjonell drift, om de har avviklet gardsdrifta, eller om de fortsatt driver tilnærmet økologisk, men ønsker å stå utenfor Debio-ordningen. Mer kunnskap om emnet vil gjøre det lettere å utarbeide strategier, virkemidler og tiltak for å motivere flere bønder til å fortsette med økologisk drift. Hovedmålet i prosjektet er å undersøke årsaker til at noen bønder slutter med Debio-godkjent økologisk produksjon mens andre fortsetter. I dette notatet vil vi gjennomgå alle resultater fra spørreundersøkelsen om utfordringer ved økologisk gardsdrift. Skjemaet ble sendt både til gardbrukere som har sluttet med Debio-godkjent økologisk drift, og til et utvalg av de som fortsatt driver økologisk. Vi beskriver først datainnsamlingen, bruksutvalget, gruppeinndelinger og statistiske analysemetoder. Deretter presenteres resultater fra spørreundersøkelsen, i hovedsak spørsmål for spørsmål. Til slutt presenteres opplysninger om arealer og dyretall på brukene på grunnlag av produksjonstilskuddsdatabasen til SLF (Statens landbruksforvaltning).

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Sammendrag

This paper presents empirical insight into part-time and full-time property owners’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies. In addition, the relationships between forest owners with varying degree of off-property work and property and forest owner characteristics, risk perceptions, risk management strategies and harvesting behaviour are examined. The data originate from a questionnaire responded to by forest owners in eastern Norway which were merged with 9 years of logging data. Timber price variability and institutional risks were perceived as primary sources of risk. Use of advisers from the forest owners’ association, buying personal insurance and off-property work were perceived as the most important ways to handle risk. The results show that off-property work affects to a lesser degree what forest owners perceived as important risk sources, but that risk perceptions affect to a stronger degree the ways in which risk was dealt with. The chosen risk management strategies influenced the forest owner's harvesting behaviour to some extent, but more research on the issue is needed to clarify the relationship. There was a positive relationship between owners with off-property activities and their performance as timber suppliers. Several measures, such as improved rural education, revision of some of the arrangements that regulate property mergers and support measures for increased on-property diversification may increase annual timber harvesting and reduce variability in harvesting level.

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Sammendrag

Alle næringer er utsatt for risiko. Det er vanlig å anta at de fleste personer, også bedriftsledere og aksjonærer, har risikoaversjon. De foretrekker en sikker inntekt framfor en usikker inntekt med samme forventning. På den andre siden er profitt en belønning for å ta risiko. Dersom en ikke er villig til å ta noe risiko, kan en heller ikke vente å oppnå høy profitt. Formålet med dette notatet er å sammenligne risikoeksponering og risikostyring i havbruk og jordbruk. Vi har sett på to hovedtemaer: 1. Hvilke typer risiko som ulike driftsgreiner innen akvakultur og jordbruk har til felles og hvilke som er spesielle for enkelte næringer og driftsgreiner, herunder «grovt» gradere samt kvantifisere størrelsen/betydningen til ulike typer risiko. 2. Hvilke virkemidler som ulike næringer og driftsgreiner benytter eller kan benytte for å styre risiko, og i hvilken grad det er institusjonelle eller andre forhold ved næringer og driftsgreiner som gjør at potensielt effektive virkemidler ikke blir benyttet. […]

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Sammendrag

In Norway, as in many other European countries, income from forestry has become marginal to owners? household economies and most employment of forest-owner households is now undertaken off the property. Also, many forest owners have focused increasingly on other revenue-earning activities on their properties, such as providing recreational services. It is a challenge in all kinds of production to find the optimal way of converting inputs into outputs, i.e., to be technically efficient. Extent of financial dependency on income from forestry differs between part-time and full-time forest owners. Since the two groups have different livelihood strategies, it is plausible that full-time forest owners have more professional forest management practices. Data for a cross-section of 3,249 active (i.e., harvesting) forest owners were extracted from the 2004 Sample Survey of Agriculture and Forestry representing the year 2003. A stochastic production frontier analysis was applied to evaluate forest management efficiency impacts of important factors including property and owner characteristics, outfield-related and agricultural activities, off-property income and geographical location in central or remote areas. It was found that many forest owners are technically inefficient, and there exist opportunities for improved performance. Off-property income was found to have an estimated negative impact on technical efficiency, the inefficiency arising (weakly) with increasing share of household incomes from outfield activities, and properties in urban centred areas are less efficient than those in remote areas. One policy implication of the study is that a potentially substantial efficiency increase might be achieved from allowing small inefficient woodlots to merge into larger units of forestry production. Also, providing support for forest management plans may improve efficiency.

Sammendrag

Målet med denne studien var å jamføre risikoen for økologiske, integrerte og convensjonelle dyrkingssystem. Forsøksdata frå eit dyrkingssystem (1991-1999) på Austlandet vart brukte saman med budsjettal frå gardsbruk. Empirisk fordeling av nettoinntekt for ulike dyrkingssystem vart estimert ved hjelp av ein simuleringsmodell. Resultata syner at det økologiske systemet hadde størst variasjon i nettoinntekt, men med gjeldane tilskotsordningar og meirprisar for økologiske varer vert dette det mest økonomiske alternativet.

Sammendrag

Conventional farmers converting to organics have contributed to most of the rapid expansion of organic farming in recent years. The new organic farmers may differ from their more established colleagues, which may have implications for the development of the organic farming sector and its distinctiveness vis-a-vis conventional production and marketing practices. The aim of this study was to explore Norwegian organic dairy farmers' personal and farm production characteristics, farming goals, conversion motives, and attitudes to organic farming, grouped by year of conversion (three groups). A postal survey was undertaken among organic dairy farmers (n=161). The results show that the newcomers (converted in 2000 or later) were less educated than the early entrants (the so-called 'old guard') who converted in 1995 or earlier. The frequency of activities like vegetable growing and poultry farming among the old guard was high. The late-entry organic herds were fed with more concentrates and had a higher milk production intensity, showed a higher incidence of veterinary treatments and less frequent use of alternative medicine than the herds of the two earlier converting groups. For all groups of farmers, the highest ranked farming goals were sustainable and environment-friendly farming and the production of high-quality food. Late entrants more often mentioned goals related to profit and leisure time. On average, the most frequently mentioned motives for conversion were food quality and professional challenges. The old guard was more strongly motivated by food quality and soil fertility/pollution issues than the others, whereas financial reasons (organic payments included) were relatively more important among the newcomers. All groups held very favorable views about the environmental qualities of organic farming methods, albeit with different strengths of beliefs. Even though trends towards more pragmatic and business-oriented farming were found, the majority of the newcomers were fairly committed.

Sammendrag

I Norge har det lenge vært et mål å øke andelen økologisk dyrket areal til 10% innen 2010, og nå har myndighetene også som mål at 15% av matproduksjonen og matforbruket i 2015 skal være økologisk. Økologisk jordbruk har utviklet seg rakst siden først på 1990-tallet. Fra 1991 til 2005 har økologisk jordbruksareal økt fra 24 430 til 430 330 daa, og utgjør nå 3,5% av det samlede jordbruksarealet. Bare for å nå 10%-målet er det behov for at minst 4000 flere bønder legger om til økologisk landbruk, og enda flere må legge om for å nå 15%-målet. Siden 2002 har omlag 200 bønder sluttet med Debio-godkjent økologisk produksjon hvert år. Vi vet ikke om disse har vendt tilbake til konvensjonell drift, om de har avviklet gardsdrifta, eller om de fortsatt driver tilnærmet økologisk, men ønsker å stå utenfor Debio-ordningen. I andre europeiske land er det utført flere studier for å finne årsaker til at økobønder slutter, men i Norge er det så langt ikke gjort noen vitenskapelige undersøkelser av dette. Dette prosjektet vil undersøke hvorfor bøndene har sluttet med økologisk produksjon. Kunnskap om dette emnet er viktig for å kunne utarbeide landbrukspolitiske virkemidler og andre tiltak som kan sikre fortsatt vekst i økologisk matproduksjon i Norge. Vi vil finne kjennetegn ved brukene og brukerne, og analysere faktorer som påvirker beslutningen om å slutte med økologisk drift. Norske resultater og rammebetingelser vil bli sammenliknet med utenlandske. Vi vil også diskutere virkemidler og tiltak for å avgrense frafallet fra økologisk gardsdrift. Først vil vi sende ut et spørreskjema til alle brukerne som har sluttet med økologisk drift i 2003 eller senere. Spørreundersøkelsen vil behandles med statistiske analyser. Deretter vil vi gjennomføre personlige dybdeintervju med noen av de tidligere øko-bøndene samt med andre viktige meningsberettigede. Disse intervjuene vil gi ytterligere innsikt og utfylle spørreundersøkelsen. Den valgte kombinasjonen av metoder vil gjøre at vi får bedre forståelse av årsakene til at gardbrukere slutter med økologisk drift. Prosjektets kostnadsramme er i underkant av 1,6 mill. kroner totalt over to år. Det er et samarbeid mellom Bioforsk Økologisk, Tingvoll og Norsk institutt for landbruksøkonomisk forskning (NILF). Vi vil ha et internasjonalt samarbeid med Danmarks tekniske universitet og BOKU, universitet for naturressurser og anvendt naturvitenskap i Wien, Østerrike.

Sammendrag

En stokastisk simuleringsmodell ble spesifisert for å sammenlikne risiko ved økologiske, integrerte og konvensjonelle driftssystemer i planteproduksjonen. Med nåværende tilskottsordninger og økologiske pristillegg svarte det seg best økonomisk med økologisk dyrking, også for gardbrukere med sterk motvilje mot å ta risiko. Sjøl om tilskott til økologisk drift falt bort, kunne økologisk drift fortsatt være fordelaktig. Dersom pristilleggene også forsvant, ble økologisk drift klart minst gunstig.

Sammendrag

This study was conducted to explore organic and conventional dairy farmers' perceptions of risk and risk management, and to examine relationships between farm and farmer characteristics, risk perceptions, and strategies. The data originate from a survey of conventional (n=363) and organic (n=162) dairy farmers in Norway. Organic farmers had the least risk averse perceptions. Institutional and production risks were perceived as primary sources of risk, with farm support payments at the top. Compared to their conventional colleagues, organic farmers gave more weight to institutional factors related to their production systems. Conventional farmers were more concerned about costs of purchased inputs and animal welfare policy. Organic and conventional farmers' management responses were more similar than their risk perceptions. Financial measures such as liquidity and costs of production, disease prevention, and insurance were perceived as important ways to handle risk. Even though perceptions were highly farmer-specific, a number of socio-economic variables were found to be related to risk and risk management. The primary role of institutional risks implies that policy makers should be cautious about changing policy capriciously and they should consider the scope for strategic policy initiatives that give farmers some greater confidence about the longer term. Further, researchers should pay more attention to institutional risks. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sammendrag

About eighteen percent of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway are considering to, and four percent are planning to convert to organic farming during the next five years. These two farmer groups can be considered as the potential for conversion to organic farming in Norway. In a questionnaire survey, this group rated attitudes on organic and conventional farming more similar to organic farmers than other conventional farmers did. For farmers considering or planning to convert, additional organic farming payments, organic farming laws and regulations and price premiums for organic products were more important sources of risk than for other conventional farmers. Most of these mentioned factors are influenced by agricultural policies, which thus represent an important factor for farmers? decision regarding the conversion to organic farming.

Sammendrag

About eighteen percent of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway are considering to, and four percent are planning to convert to organic farming during the next five years. These two farmer groups can be considered as the potential for conversion to organic farming in Norway. In a questionnaire survey, this group rated attitudes on organic and conventional farming more similar to organic farmers than other conventional farmers did. For farmers considering or planning to convert ...

Sammendrag

Animal health and health handling were studied in organic dairy farms separated into three groups according to time of conversion. The study showed differences in both health and health handling between the groups and especially so for the earliest converters.

Sammendrag

About 18% of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway are considering to, and 4% are planning to convert to organic farming during the next five years. ...

Sammendrag

About 22 % of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway were considering or were planninAbout 22 % of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway were considering or were planning to convert to organic farming during the next four years. For these farmers, here called potential converters, higher soil fertility, professional challenges, profitability, and organic farming payments were important motives for considering to convert.

Sammendrag

About 22 % of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway were considering or were planning to convert to organic farming during the next four years. For these farmers, here called potential converters, higher soil fertility, professional challenges, profitability, and organic farming payments were important motives for considering to convert.

Sammendrag

About 22 % of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway were considering or were planning to convert to organic farming during the next four years. For these farmers, here called potential converters, higher soil fertility, professional challenges, profitability, and organic farming payments were important motives for considering to convert.

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Sammendrag

Ofte får gardbrukere erfare at produksjon og inntekt ikke blir som en hadde tenkt seg på forhånd. En gardbruker har aldri full kontroll over de tallrike faktorene som påvirker drifta, og usikre framtidige konsekvenser innebærer risiko. Mange tenker mest på de ugunstige situasjonene en kan bli utsatt for, og som blant anna skyldes avlingssvikt, naturkatastrofer, prisfall og uheldige politikkendringer. I verste fall kan slike forhold rasere inntekter og formuesverdier til gardbrukere. Få driftsøkonomiske studier innen økologisk jordbruk har tatt hensyn til risiko. Dette gjelder nasjonalt så vel som internasjonalt. Hovedmålet med prosjektet har vært å øke kunnskapen om risiko og risikohandtering innenfor økologisk jordbruksproduksjon i Norge. Med utgangspunkt i hovedmålet ble følgende delmål opprinnelig formulert for prosjektet: 1. Belyse omfang av risiko, spesielt avlings-, avdråtts-, dyrehelse-, pris- og inntektsrisiko knyttet til økologisk gardsdrift. 2. Belyse hvilke strategier økologiske produsenter nytter for å handtere risiko. 3. Utvikle gardsmodeller for å analysere økonomisk optimal tilpassing ved usikkerhet i økologisk jordbruk. […]

Sammendrag

Ofte får gardbrukere erfare at produksjon og inntekt ikke blir som en hadde tenkt seg på forhånd. Som gardbruker vil en aldri ha full kontroll over de tallrike faktorene som påvirker drifta, og usikre framtidige konsekvenser innebærer risiko. Mange tenker mest på de ugunstige situasjonene en kan bli utsatt for, og som kan skyldes avlingssvikt, prisfall, endra politikk, osv. Få driftsøkonomiske studier innen økologisk jordbruk har tatt hensyn til risiko. Dette gjelder nasjonalt så vel som internasjonalt. Hovedmålet med prosjektet har vært å øke kunnskapen om risiko og risikohandtering innenfor økologisk jordbruksproduksjon i Norge. Med utgangspunkt i hovedmålet ble følgende delmål opprinnelig formulert for prosjektet: 1. Belyse omfang av risiko, spesielt avlings-, avdråtts-, dyrehelse-, pris- og inntektsrisiko knyttet til økologisk gardsdrift. 2. Belyse hvilke strategier økologiske produsenter nytter for å handtere risiko. 3. Utvikle gardsmodeller for å analysere økonomisk optimal tilpassing ved usikkerhet i økologisk jordbruk. ... Farmers often find that farm production and financial performance do not turn out as expected in advance. A farmer does never have complete control of all the factors affecting outcome, and uncertain consequences imply risk. Usually farm people are most worried about the bad outcomes they may be exposed to, caused by crop failures, natural disasters, price declines, or adverse policy changes. All these can negatively affect farmers? incomes and net assets. Studies of risk and risk management in organic farming have been few. The principal aim of this project has been to increase knowledge about risk and risk management in organic farming in Norway. The main aim was to be pursued through the following sub-goals: 1. Assess organic farmers? exposure to risk, especially risks related to crop yields, livestock performance, animal health, prices and income. 2. Identify organic farmers? risk management strategies. 3. Develop farm models to examine optimal adjustments under risk in organic farming. ...

Sammendrag

This study was conducted to explore organic and conventional dairy farmers? perceptions of risk and risk management, and to examine relationships between farm and farmer characteristics, risk perceptions, and strategies.

Sammendrag

About eighteen percent of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway are considering to, and four percent are planning to convert to organic farming during the next five years. These two farmer groups can be considered as the potential for conversion to organic farming in Norway. In a questionnaire survey, this group rated attitudes on organic and conventional farming more similar to organic farmers than other conventional farmers did. For farmers considering or planning to convert, additional organic farming payments, organic farming laws and regulations and price premiums for organic products were more important sources of risk than for other conventional farmers. Most of these mentioned factors are influenced by agricultural policies, which thus represent an important factor for farmers? decision regarding the conversion to organic farming.

Sammendrag

About eighteen percent of the conventional dairy and cash crop farmers in Norway are considering to, and four percent are planning to convert to organic farming during the next five years. These two farmer groups can be considered as the potential for conversion to organic farming in Norway. In a questionnaire survey, this group rated attitudes on organic and conventional farming more similar to organic farmers than other conven¬tional farmers did. For farmers considering or planning to convert, additional organic farming payments, organic farming laws and regulations and price premiums for organic products were more important sources of risk than for other conven¬tional farmers. Most of these mentioned factors are influenced by agricultural policies, which thus represent an important factor for farmers` decision regarding the conversion to organic farming.

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Sammendrag

Because the analysis of risky choice in agriculture and rural resource management is important but difficult, we argue that there is a need for some agreed principles on how to proceed. This paper is intended as a first step to this end. We start with the proposition that the importance of risk aversion has generally been exaggerated relative to the task of finding better ways to deduce relevant and reliable probabilities. Getting better probabilities demands careful thought, drawing on what is know about the pitfalls and on evolving insights into better ways of proceeding. Our aim is to stimulate a debate leading to a clearer consensus about better practice in these matters.

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Sammendrag

This study was conducted to explore organic and conventional dairy farmers perceptions of risk and risk management, and to examine relationships between farm and farmer characteristics, risk perceptions, and strategies. The data originate from a survey of conventional (n = 363) and organic (n = 162) dairy farmers in Norway. Organic farmers had the least risk averse perceptions. Institutional and production risks were perceived as primary sources of risk, with farm support payments at the top. Compared to their conventional colleagues, organic farmers gave more weight to institutional factors related to their production systems. Conventional farmers were more concerned about costs of purchased inputs and animal welfare policy. Organic and conventional farmers management responses were more similar than their risk perceptions. Financial measures such as liquidity and costs of production, disease prevention, and insurance were perceived as important ways to handle risk. Even though perceptions were highly farmer-specific, a number of socio-economic variables were found to be related to risk and risk management. The primary role of institutional risks implies that policy makers should be cautious about changing policy capriciously and they should consider the scope for strategic policy initiatives that give farmers some greater confidence about the longer term. Further, researchers should pay more attention to institutional risks.

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Sammendrag

This study presents empirical insight into organic and conventional cash crop farmers' perceptions of risk and risk management strategies, and identifies socio-economic variables linked to these perceptions. The data originate from a questionnaire survey of farmers in Norway. The results indicate that organic farmers perceived themselves to be less risk aversethan conventional farmers. For both groups, crop prices and yield variability were the two top rated sources of risk, followed by institutional risks. The two groups evaluated risk management strategies quite similarly; favoured strategies weregood liquidity and to prevent and reduce crop diseases and pests. The farmers' evaluation of sources of risk and choice of risk strategies depended onvarious socio-economic variables. The importance of institutional risks implies that policy makers should be cautious about changing policy capriciously and they should consider strategic policy initiatives that give farmers more long-term reliability.

Sammendrag

This study presents empirical insight into organic and conventional cash crop farmers" perceptions of risk and risk management strategies, and identifies socio-economic variables linked to these perceptions. The data originate from a questionnaire survey of farmers in Norway. The results indicate that organic farmers perceived themselves to be less risk averse than conventional farmers. For both groups, crop prices and yield variability were the two top rated sources of risk, followed by institutional risks. The two groups evaluated risk management strategies quite similarly; favoured strategies were good liquidity and to prevent and reduce crop diseases and pests. The farmers" evaluation of sources of risk and choice of risk strategies depended on various socio-economic variables. The importance of institutional risks implies that policy makers should be cautious about changing policy capriciously and they should consider strategic policy initiatives that give farmers more long-term reliability.

Sammendrag

The objective of this study was to provide empirical insight into dairy farmers goals, relative risk attitude, sources of risk and risk management responses. The study also examines whether organic dairy farming, leads to important risk sources not experienced in conventional farming and, if so, howthose extra risks are managed. The data originate from a questionnaire survey of conventional (n=373) and organic (n = 162) dairy farmers in Norway. The results show that organic farmers have somewhat different goals than conventional farmers,and that the average organic farmer is less risk averse. Institutional risk was perceived as the most important source ofrisk, independently of conventional or organic production system. Keeping cash on hand wasthe most important strategy to manage risk for all dairy farmers.

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Sammendrag

A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), orders a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for conforming utility functions with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. Unlike conventional SDRF, SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise, and hence can produce a smaller efficient set than that found by simple pairwise SDRF over the same range of risk attitudes. Moreover, the method can be implemented in a simple spreadsheet with no special software needed.

Sammendrag

Stochastic budgeting is used to simulate the business and financial risk and the performance over a 6-year planning horizon on a Norwegian dairy farm. A major difficulty with stochastic whole-farm budgeting lies in identifying and measuring dependency relationships between stochastic variables. Some methods to account for these stochastic dependencies are illustrated. The financial feasibility of different investment and management strategies is evaluated. In contrast with earlier studies with stochastic farm budgeting, the option aspect is included in the analysis.

Sammendrag

As more data have been amassed and interest in working with the ensuing data sets have grown, methods for organizing and examining the data have evolved. The need to work with these larger amounts of data has led to the development of ‘data mining’ methods and software. Data mining has a somewhat skewed reputation, and has often been characterised as ‘data dredging’ or ‘fishing expeditions’ . However, most of us must admit that such ‘expeditions’ or what one also could call hypothesis-generating approaches where we look for both likely and less likely associations, has occurred within our own research. In principal, generating promising associations is what data mining is all about. In this paper we have applied one of many commercial software available (Enterprise Miner, SAS) on a small dataset merged from a questionnaire data set and the national dairy cattle health and production records. We investigated for patterns separating organic dairy farmers from the conventional ones. The main framework of the data mining approach, some of the core modelling methods and the data mining results are briefly described and assessed.

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Sammendrag

A model is presented to investigate the optimal economic life cycle of grass leys with winter damage problems in northern Norway and to determine the threshold of winter damage before it is profitable to reseed. A two‐level hierarchic Markov process has been constructed using the MLHMP software (the MLHMP software and the plug‐in constructed for this model are available for download at http://www.prodstyr.ihh.kvl.dk/software/mlhmp.html). The model takes uncertainty concerning yield potential, damage estimation and weather‐dependent random fluctuations into account. A Kalman filter technique is used for updating the knowledge of yield potential and damage level. The application of the model is demonstrated using data from two commercial Norwegian farms. As parameter estimates vary considerably among farms, it is concluded that decision support concerning optimal economic life cycle of grass leys should be done at farm level. The results also show the importance of using a flexible dynamic replacement strategy. Use of the model for specific farm situations is illustrated.

Sammendrag

The objective of this study was to provide empirical insight into dairy farmers’ goals, relative risk attitude, sources of risk and risk management responses. The study also examines whether organic dairy farming, leads to important risk sources not experienced in conventional farming and, if so, how those extra risks is managed. The data originate from a questionnaire survey of conventional (n=370) and organic (n = 160) dairy farmers in Norway. The results show that organic farmers have somewhat different goals than conventional farmers, and that the average organic farmer is less risk averse. Institutional risk was perceived as the most important source of risk, independently of conventional or organic production system, while organic farmers indicated greater concern about forage yield risk. Keeping cash on hand was the most important strategy to manage risk for all dairy farmers. Diversification and different kinds of flexibility was regarded as a more important risk management strategies among organic than conventional farmers.

Sammendrag

The Norwegian Ministry of Agriculture (1999) has announced its goal of converting 10% of the total agricultural area to organic farming methods by the year 2009. Considerations of profitability and risk will be especially important, when the conversion of a farm is planned. Studies of risk and risk management in organic farming have been lacking in Norway. Only very few such studies have been carried out internationally, thus showing that there is a definite need for more risk and risk management research in organic farming. The project aims to increase knowledge about risks and risk management in organic farming systems. It is a co-operation between NILF, NORSK, and NVH. Both biological and economic aspects of risk will be taken into consideration. We wish to test and apply acknowledged statistical and risk analysis theories and methods on issues related to organic farming. The project will deal with the extent of risk in organic farming, strategies used by organic farmers to handle risk and whole-farm models to analyse optimal economic solutions under uncertainty in organic farming. The project will cover farms that are still in conversion and completely converted farms. Results from the project will directly benefit farmers and farm advisers. Politicians and public administrators will receive access to significant information for the design of future policies.

Sammendrag

Farmers in northern Norway have experienced severe winter damage on grassland rather frequently, especially on flat areas and peat soils in regions with an unstable winter climate around zero degrees Celsius. Traditional drainage with drainpipes is normally not sufficient to prevent such damage in these areas. During the past two decades the use of open ditches and surface grading has become the main method of reclaiming and draining peat land. A new heuristic stochastic dynamic analysis method for problems like this, combining simulation and optimisation, is used to explore the profitability of surface grading of peat soils. This analysis indicates that the year in which a ley should be reseeded depends on stage in the growth curve when eventually the winter damage happens as well as on the severity of the damage. Given the present acreage subsidy payment, surface grading is normally profitable from a farmers point of view.

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Sammendrag

A method of stochastic dominance analysis with respect to a function (SDRF) is described and illustrated. The method, called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF), partitions a set of risky alternatives in terms of certainty equivalents for a specified range of attitudes to risk. It can be applied for any utility function with risk attitudes defined by corresponding ranges of absolute, relative or partial risk aversion coefficients. SERF involves comparing each alternative with all the other alternatives simultaneously, not pairwise as with conventional SDRF. Hence it yields a subset of the efficient set found by SDRF. Moreover, the method is readily implemented in a simple spreadsheet with no special software needed.

Sammendrag

A new non‐parametric method to estimate a decision maker's coefficient of absolute risk aversion from observed economic behaviour is explained. The method uses the expected value‐variance (E‐V) framework and quadratic programming. An empirical illustration is given using Norwegian farm‐level data.

Sammendrag

Empirical evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed distributions and exhibit sudden and un xpected price jumps. There is also evidence that the volatility of futures prices contains a term structure depending on both calendar-time and time to maturity. This paper extends Bates (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by including both seas nal and maturity effects in volatility. An in-sample fit to market option prices on wheat futures show that our model outperforms previous models considered in the literature. A numerical example illustrates the economic significance of our results for option valuation.

Sammendrag

Farmers in northern Norway have experienced frequent winter damages of grassland, especially on flat areas and peat soils. The use of open ditches and surface grading has become the common method to drain such fields and for reclaiming new land with such characteristics. We designate this as surface grading in this paper. An investment analysis is carried out to explore the profitability of this method. This analysis indicates that the method is profitable from the farmers’ point of view. However, the conclusions are sensitive to changes in crop yields and the value of the yields. The cost of a winter damage and thus an unplanned reseeding is high for young leys, but is small for leys approaching the optimal replacement age.

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Sammendrag

This paper addresses the impacts of degree of risk aversion, subsidy scheme and choice of utility function on optimal farm plans in Norwegian agriculture. Data from a farm business survey (1991-1997) are combined with subjective judgements to formulate a two-stage utility-efficient programming model. Under existing policy and market conditions, the ex ante expectation was that farmers' risk attitudes are unlikely to have a large effect on choice of enterprise mix. The results tend to confirm this view, and a farmer who is hardly risk averse at all would choose the same farm plan as a very risk averse farmer. Factors such as subsidy schemes, market conditions for the products and available labour on the farm are found to be more important determinants of the optimal plans than farmers' risk attitude or the form of the utility function.

Sammendrag

I Nord-Norge blir storparten av arealet brukt til å produsere grovfôr som skal foredles gjennom husdyr på samme gardsbruket. Avlingsresultat vil derfor bestemme tilgangen på egetprodusert grovfôr. Dette stiller bøndene overfor mange tilpassingsproblemer i husdyrholdet, og det har stor betydning for kostnader og lønnsomhet. Erfaringer fra mange år tilsier at overvintringsskade på eng er et betydelig problem for mange brukere. I dette notatet forsøker vi å kvantifisere avlingsvariasjon og forskjeller i økonomisk resultat mellom bruk med stor og bruk med liten variasjon. Vi benytter NILFs driftsgranskinger i jord- og skogbruk for årene 1993 til 1997. I analysene har vi med bruk fra Nordland, Troms, Finnmark og Jæren som har vært med i driftsgranskingene i alle 5 årene. Dermed har vi data for alle bruk over en periode med både gode og dårlige avlingsår og år med problemer med overvintringsskader. Jæren er tatt med i analysene for å belyse forskjeller i avlingsvariasjon mellom landsdeler i Norge. For å belyse hvor stor variasjonen er mellom år i avlingsresultat for eng og beite og grønnfôr på mjølkeproduksjonsbruk i Nord-Norge beregner vi på bruksnivå gjennomsnittlig avling per dekar, avlingens standardavvik innenfor bruk, og tilhørende variasjonskoeffisient. Vi finner at Jæren har mer stabile avlinger enn de tre nordlige fylkene. Avlingsvariasjonene mellom fylkene i nord for samme vekst er ikke vesentlig forskjellige. Grønnfôr har gjennomgående større variasjon enn eng og beite. Beregningene viser at for eng og beite i Nordland, Troms, Finnmark og Jæren ligger gjennomsnittlig relativ variasjon omkring hhv. 18 %, 18 %, 15 % og 11 %. For grønnfôr er tilsvarende tall hhv. 44 %, 28 %, 38 % og 19 %. [...]

Sammendrag

Vi benyttet forventnings-varians porteføljeanalyse utviklet av Markowitz (1959), på NILFs driftsgranskinger fra 1991-96. Optimale porteføljevalg ble approksimert med kvadratisk programmering. Resultatene viste at norske bønders reelle tilpasninger avviker noe i forhold til optimale valg av risiko og dekningsbidrag, spesielt for driftsformene kornproduksjon og bruk med kombinert korn-, melk- og storfeslaktproduksjon. Det kan være flere årsaker til at bøndene tilpasser seg fra effisiensgrensen, blant annet: transaksjonskostnader forbundet med skifte av produksjoner, offentlige reguleringer som konsesjonsgrenser og kvotereguleringer begrenser ofte optimale porteføljevalg, klimatiske og topologiske forhold varierer mye i Norge og mange produksjoner er utelukket i enkelte områder eller utelukket som alternativer i analysen, og arbeidsmessige forhold kan være begrensende for produksjonssammensetning. Analysen indikerer at offentlige tilskuddsordninger har bidratt til å redusere produksjonen av risikable produksjoner som poteter og grønnsaker. Porteføljemodellen bygger på strenge forutsetninger og modellene har flere svakheter. Vi tror imidlertid at porteføljemodeller kan fungere som beslutningsstøtte sammen med mer tradisjonelle analyser, subjektiv informasjon og skjønn innen problemstillinger i landbruket.